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Everybody is talking about the possible US sanctions on military purchase of Turkey. As you may be aware, Turkey is one of the major purchaser of US military equipment. And that is for sure a major blow for Turkey to face with arms embargo from its western partners as a result of military operation into northeastern Syria.

It is not a secret that US Congress pressures White House to investigate Turkish military operation in northeastern either Turkey has been violating the agreement or not. That clearly signals the fact that US Congress is looking for every possible way to pass series of anti-Turkey motions.

Indeed, Turkish defense industry requires various Western subcomponents to produce its own equipment. The current embargo by EU and possible embargo by US will bite Turkey. This would affect the stockpiles by exhausting them more quickly than expected. This is detrimental to Turkey’s maintenance and modernization of the military equipment.

However, it shall be remembered that Turkey is not facing military embargo for the first time. When Tukey started the Cyprus operation in 1974, US and Western allies put embargo to Turkey. During 42 months of embargo, Turkey learned lots from it.

Turkey set its first national defense institutions during 80s. Since 2000, Turkey has started to purchase and sell military equipment.

Turkey is a major exporter of defense-related equipment. Some resources claim 70% but it is assumed 50%-60% of arms requirement are met via local industry where as it was 20% 20 years ago.

Turkey has already advanced talking with Russia about SU-35 fighter jets. Although it is old technology and would not meet the necessity army seeks for, such purchase would be beneficial to Turkey and Russia. A major arm sale to Turkey, NATO member, would increase the drift between NATO and Turkey where as it would signal US and EU that Turkey will not back down its desire to clean up its borders from terrorists. Turkey has other opportunities like Ukraine, Belarus, China, North Korea and China. Considering the western relations with some of the countries and its capabilities in this list, the most feasible countries Turkey would approach are Pakistan and China.

The degree to which Ankara ultimately overcomes Western sanctions and, potentially, turns away from the West will have significant implications in Europe and the Middle East in coming decade.

In the end, Turkey cannot completely avoid such pain. Some projects will face delays and maintenance of equipment will threat the continuity of operations in northern Syria. But with alternatives to its existing suppliers and growing ability of local industry, the sanctions might push Turkey to be self-sufficient in military manufacturing industry, if not totally them majorly in following decade.