It is simple. Turkey is a social country where Social Security Institution pays major part of the health care costs for people. Once the none-working population will have higher percent among the population, it will add additional burden to State to meet with the expenses. In order to spare budget will have to increase the taxes and reduce the amount of spared amount.
So why Turkey has entered such period? President Erdogan has been pushing the idea that each family should have 3 children. The fertility rate has been dropping in Turkey. In 2020, it declined with -5.5% compared to previous year although it is believed to be effect of pandemic. The fertility rate in 2000 was 2.5 births per woman in Turkey. It is expected to be 1.9 births per woman in 2021 which is well below than replacement rate which is 2.1. Moreover, life expectancy is expected to increase to 81 by 2031 from 77 as of today.
Therefore, super mega infrastructure projects, although do not add value to economy, hold vital importance to President Erdogan. It would help to create jobs. Although President Erdogan has tried to encourage youngsters to have 3 children, youngsters seems not sharing the same view. That also shows that social attitudes shift to emphasize smaller families.
Turkey’s demographic problem is not only Erdogan’s problem but national problem. If Turkey intends to project not only regional but also global power, it has to solve its ongoing economic problems. President Erdogan prefers popular politics to major solutions which would pave the road to second elections in 2023. However, it adds more problems to future.
