Following the collapse of the Soviet regime, several countries rose in the region. They are mostly Turkic states. Since they are landlocked countries, all these have the logic not to take a side with any major global power such as Russia or China while maintaining a neutral position in foreign affairs. That was the equilibrium established following the fall of the Soviet era. With the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban regime, this might change with Turkmenistan.
YOUTUBE
Turkmenistan is a landlocked country. It has significant energy resources and a valuable transit state in Central Asia. Therefore, it has always been an attraction for Russia, China, Turkey and western countries to assert its influences. The military capability is limited and the economy is not strong at all. There is no democracy in the country and it is ruled with an iron hand. Officially there is no covid-19 case in the country emphasizing the style of administration in the country. It is not a member of regional economic or political groups such as Eurasian Economic Union and avoids any cooperation in military organizations. These have given Turkmenistan to keep outside power to influence its sovereignty. However, things might change with the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban.
The flow of Turkmens and Afghans into Turkmenistan could pose fear of threat since it might open room for regional and global power to exert influence. Therefore, Turkmen authorities already prevent the flow of refuge into the country. However, the border between Turkmenistan and Afghanistan is problematic. It is an 800 km plain border. Its economy is weak and they cannot build a wall like Uzbekistan did and its patrolling skills unlike Pakistan and Chinese skills are limited. Turkmen military is poorly trained and unskilled.
Moreover, a huge amount of refugees will add more unemployment, food shortage and less development. In order to cope with those existing problems, authorities introduced coupons for flour, butter, sugar and other basic food although it is not sustainable for a long time. Turkmenistan has to keep the Afghan border secure not only due to controlling the flow of refugees but also most of its gas reserves lay along the Afghan border. In order to cope with those problems, Turkmenistan has to make concessions and seek for friends.
Seeking friends will attract Russia, China, Iran and Turkey at first. Russia will try to guarantee gas contracts to influence the country's politics. Iran and Taliban support the TAPI (Turkmen – Afghan – Pakistan and Iran pipeline. Such a project will give international recognition to the Taliban whereas Iran will diversify its turnover. China always seeks more energy to replace it with coal and Turkmen gas means cheap and clean energy. Turkey might contribute to security by offering drones. Thus, would strengthen political, ideological and economic positions in the country.
Turkmenistan is not in a position to ensure the security of its borders with ill-equipped military technology. It requires assistance and Turkmenistan will face a choice. Turkey might offer drone technology with military assistance to support the border security. Since they are both Turkic nations and ideology remains closer in the long term, it might give Turkey an advanced start-up if Ankara supports such a move. Moreover, Turkey can increase its influence in Turkmenistan. Thus, would lead the Turkmen gas project to Europe via Turkey in future.
