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Russia has been demanding security guarantees from the EU and US while posing threats to Ukraine unless those are not complied by. Despite the fact that there are uncertainties, possible scenarios are as follows; 

YOUTUBE

 
Scenario #1;
 
It is beneficial to Russia to elevate the tension over the Minsk agreements in eastern Ukraine. While Moscow will keep the troops and equipment along the border, Russia will not be willing to invade. Building up such forces will put pressure on Ukraine and West to give some concessions. While NATO will not formally disavow the prospect of Ukraine’s membership in the alliance, Russia will insist that western weapons which might cause threats to Russian security would not be deployed to Ukraine. EU will put pressure on Kyiv to reassure the Minks agreement but it will be hard for Ukrainian President Zelensky to verify it unless a cosmetic touches are applied on the agreement to save face in domestic politics.
 
However, Moscow believes the concessions are not sufficient to satisfy its needs then Moscow will not hesitate the increase the tension. This will take most likely the cease-fire violation by the separatists with heavy weapons to provoke Ukraine. If Ukraine loss will accumulate by time, Kyiv has no chance not to move offensively. This would give Moscow the propaganda to justify Kyiv as aggressor. If Ukraine military advances in Donbas, Russian army might response and military conflict will be inevitable.
 
Scenarios #2;
 
If there will be no concession by West, Moscow might consider using the failure to impose a military action against Ukraine. This might include the areas like east part of Dnieper River and Odessa to secure the entire Black Sea coast. That means Russian army has to destroy the large part of Ukraine army to force a political settlement while giving a land corridor to access Crimea and creating a geographical border with West. However, it will cost Russia with sanctions and human right accusation. In order to follow this, Moscow has to bring significant equipment and troops along the border.
 
Out of two, the first scenario is more likely to happen. However the second scenario cannot be neglected, too. The path to political settlement is through a slippery road. However, it can only be achieved if all parties agree some kind of concessions. Otherwise, scenario #2 can play out dramatically.