Agreement with Libya is a part of larger Turkish Maritime Doctrine in Future

Geopolitic Compass considers that the tension between Iran and US will increase during 2020. Trump administration will increase the pressure on Iran. The economy is worsening and regardless who wins the election in Iran, Iran’s different fractions will remain united behind the Iran National Security Council. US economic pressure has led Iranian elites to observe the fact that they have to be united. That is why there is a new power balance is already taking place in Iran. While this happens, the Iranian’s elites including the elites agree with the harsh tactics used against the protesters during the fuel price hike. The negative effects of US economic pressure will be felt in elections. The survey shows that the hardliners will gain more seat and influence in the 2020 elections. The economic pressure will give the tool what the hardliners seek for during 2020. They will heavily use the economic sanctions to influence the elections while reformist will have less power to influence.

Turkey has a close relation with GNA (Government of National Accord in Libya). Libya has activated the security and military cooperation deal it had reached with Turkey on November 28. Thus, enables Turkey to provide more military assistance to Libya. However, this might complicate the complex conflict but paves a way for resolution even though it is even more difficult. The Tripoli offensive began in May 2019 by Hifter who is backed by UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Russia. Once it began, Turkey decided to transfer military equipment such as BMC Kirpi (Light vehicle), Bayraktar UAV in order to balance the supply such as Chinese made UAV and anti-Russian Pantsir air defense supplied by Gulf allies. Turkey was forced to supply these weapons since West has failed to stop such supply from Gulf states. In that regard, Turkey considered to balance the power between two groups while enabling itself to gain a stronghold in Libya. In order to fly the Bayraktar UAV, there are operators and maintenance team in Libya. There are also military advisers to train the soldiers. Turkey position is clear in Libya, West might recognize GNA but it fails to stop Hifter receiving the military supplies from Gulf states. Thus, Turkey would take action despite the fact that it would undermine its Western allies including EU and US.