Turkey has launched an air and ground campaign into Afrin, a Kurdish-controlled enclave in northwestern Syria. Codenamed “Operation Olive Branch,” it’s the latest chapter in a decades-long conflict between Turkey and Kurdish militants.
Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim has said Turkey wants to create a 30-kilometer (20-mile) deep “secure zone” in Afrin. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said the military operation is essential for Turkey’s security and Syria’s territorial integrity.
The majority of the advancing forces have come from north of Afrin, and the predominantly rebel formations on the eastern side of the battle zone have now launched their own assaults on the YPG. Most of the difficult terrain is concentrated around the current frontlines, meaning that if Turkey and its allies accomplish their initial objectives they will have an easier task advancing farther.
But Turkey is already thinking beyond the battle for Afrin. The country has continued to stress its desire to push the YPG out of the city of Manbij, which lies east of Afrin. Can Turkey push the operation or next one into Manbij?
With the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) where YPG is the dominant force, the United States aims to build a force that can prevent the rebuilding of the Islamic State or any similar groups, establish a counterweight to the Syrian government in Damascus and contain growing Iranian power. While doing so, US; willlingly or not, causes national security risks to Turkey. A strong Kurdish forces mean a stronger resistance to Turkey and in future it can evolve a Kurdish State. And for sure, Turkey will not close its eyes to such formation.
Thus, if Turkey were to advance on Manbij or other SDF-held territory, Washington would be obligated to intervene or else risk collapsing the foundation of its Syrian strategy — its relationship with the SDF.
Therefore in next months, we will see lots of diplomatic attempts from various side to find a solution to Turkey's national security concerns as well as US plans in the region. Actually, a delegation from US Defence Secretary Department already is in Turkey to discuss about afrin, US plans in the region.
However Turkey and US have great differences. US strategy to rely on Kurds means a corridor to handle starting from Arbil to Mediterinian Sea. And Turkey does not want such corridor occupied by Kurdish forces. At this moment, there is huge differences between US and Turkey. Unless, the diplomatic attempts reaches an a solution in future, it would be imminent to see a US-Turkish direct or indirect clash in 2019. These differences emphasize a clear new era between two countries; Turkey and US are no more strategical allies but partners.
