Turkish – US relations are not in good conditions like it was in Cold War. Since the ISIS crisis started in the Middle East, Turkish – US relations deterred. Turkey and US have different views and interests in the region.
US want to ensure that the there would be no Islamic terrorist groups remain operational that might pose threat to the US interests such as energy route disruption and cause disruption to focus on Iran. Thus, US has no reservations to use the terrorist groups to defeat ISIS. There it becomes the problem to Turkish interest. US becomes closer to PKK/YPG terrorist groups and has no shame to state openly that Pentagon has been supplying arms to PKK/YPG. President Erdogan numbered this aid as some 3 to 4 thousand of lorries.
PKK/YPG has been posing national threat to security of Turkey for decades. And this seems to remain intact for at least for some decades too. It was not even remotely possible for Turkey not to object US strategy. This difference of using terrorist group to another terrorist group will not be solved easily. What makes it even worse is Turkish intervention to Afrin, Syria. By doing so, Turkey has stopped the PJKK/YPG move to Mediterranean Sea which would enable the PKK/YPG group to emerge the Kurdish population from Iran border to the Sea.
For this reason, US and interestingly France have allocated extra military presence nearby Manbij in order to stop Turkish movement to Manbij. President Erdogan insists on a military action into Manbij to purge the PKK/YPG terrorists into Iraq. If President Erdogan wins the snap elections on 24 June (or 08 July in case second round is required), it is imminent for Turkey to commence a military elections late summer or during Autumn 2018. Ultimately, this would escalate the US-Turkish relations (including the France – despite the fact that France is claiming that they are in the region to purge the ISIS, the allocations of French troops display the fact they are to protect the French assets such as Lafarge and some others).
However, for the first time during President Erdogan administration since 2001, the opposition party has a slim chance to win the Presidential Election. Some observers consider this opportunity to put the US-Turkish relations back into track. But they are far away from the reality.
Muharrem Ince, opposition party member and candidate to President, attended a TV program in an opposition TV channel on early this week. As a candidate, Mr. Ince has been talking about this strategy to make Turkey better. As expected, he was talking about the economy and good relations with neighbours where Turkey has been losing the economic power since 2012 and no good relations are left with neighbouring countries for a long time. For that purpose, he has been promising to bring the democratic regulations back to politic system. Up to this point, these are all expected promises and talking. However, the surprise comes when he mentioned about the Turkish – US relations.
He has been suggesting that he would make dramatic change in the law system of the Turkey where it would enable Fetullah Gulen (who is behind the coup attempt in 2016 and lives in US now) to be before the trial. Mr. Ince, then added unless US administration chose not to give Gulen to Turkey, Mr. Ince (then as President) would order American soldiers in Incirlik (NATO base) to leave the country for Christmas time.
This is remarkable in Turkish history which we believe most has been missing. In case, opposition party candidate would be President following snap elections, the deterring relations between US – Turkey would remain intact. It is obvious that US administration has no interest to deliver to Turkish security forces. And it becomes more apparent that Turkey, whoever would be President, will demand Gulen and this would be a hammer effect on Turkish – US relations for a long time.
Mr. Ince is aware that the Syrian politics of Turkey is not on the right foot. Thus, needs a rectification immediately. However, withdrawal of military presence from Syria (and even Iraq) is not possible for Turkey. Mr. Ince has stated in an election rally that if he would be elected as President, he would appoint an ambassador to Damascus in order to establish good relations with Syria. However, he does not refer any military withdrawal from the region which would weaken the Turkish foothold in the region and he is well aware that.
Either the coming President would be Mr. Erdogan or Mr. Ince, it is likely that there would be no dramatic change taking place between US and Turkish relations. US administration would continue to support PKK/YPG terrorist groups in order to purge the ISIS threats which cause disruption to energy routes. On the contrary, Turkey would increase its military presence in the Middle East even deeper from today. However, increasing Turkish influence in the region would disrupt some relations with Iran, Saudi and Russia. Turkey, on the edge of economic crisis, is not ready to confront any of these threats. Therefore, Turkey would likely to follow a delicate politics with all neighbouring countries and would do upmost to increase its presence in the region by using soft power. While economic indicators deter severely, this would not be easy.
