President Trump has announced that US would delay the new tariff from 1st of October to 15th of October. It has given a glimpse it might help both to reach a consensus but we believe it is too far away from such agreement at the moment.
Moreover, we have realized that President Trump’s foreign policy pushed Russia and China to closer cooperation since both states feel enormous pressure from US. In order to resist increasing US pressure, both countries feel compelled working together.
We have seen the first cooperation in military drill in North Asia sea. Moreover, the Russian bomber flight in the area raised the rivalry between Japan and South Korea. US is compelled to find partners in this region. And these are Japan and South Korea.
However, raising cooperation between Russia and China is temporary. While the relations will be refined and a new equilibrium would be established among US-Russia-China, we assume that Russia and China would find themselves rivalry in Central Asia.
Central Asia is a backyard of Russia. What Cuba and Panama means for US, Central Asia is similar to Russia. However, China wants to increase its influence in Central Asia. China is already active in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Moreover, China uses money to attract those countries into money trap. And they are so far successful.
Russian – Chinese relations will be redefined by their relations with US. All three majors will find a new equilibrium among each other. And then we shall expect increasing conflict between China and Russia.
