As we have stated almost one and the half month ago, US had made a wrong choice. And this choice brought the drone attack to Saudi Arabia. Once the tankers were hit and US UAV was downed by Iran, if US had responded accordingly would we see the oil facility in Saudi Arabia? That would a question without an answer – for now. But what we are sure that President Trump has to decide a difficult choice; to retaliate or not. Both have consequences in Middle East and US cannot avoid this now.
Actually, there are three military options US might persuade.
First one is; to do nothing. Trump administration has been following Jefferson approach. As long as US has not been targeted directly, US has to retaliate with economic sanctions. Refinery attack increased the oil price and US companies benefited a lot about it. But the worst happens to Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman. Unless Saudi Arabia retaliates and it has to be with US military, Prince Muhammed would be seen as weak leader. Unless US assists Saudi Arabia with military attack, it would make the relations cooler.
Second; to retaliate either scaled attack or closing the Hormuz Strait. Closing Hormuz is not option since US needs a very big navy with aircraft carrier, navy vehicles with anti air to sea defecen capabilities and navy vehicles to close the gate. It construes high cost and President Trump does not want to get involved with such engagement due to coming election in 2020. Smaller retaliation is more convenient but the damage would not be great as oil facility attack. It would be seen as weak response. Moreover, US is not sure how Iran would retaliate such military campaign. If responded heavily, US and Saudi Arabia aircrafts might be downed.
Third attack on Iran proxy groups. But such attacks will not benefit to Saudi since it will be on assets such as Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Moreover, US will be seen as helping Israel. And Saudi alliance will be hut with this damage.
Either a small scaled retaliation or no response will take place. It has 50% - 50% chances. We will be only surprised if US will prefer a bigger attack but we consider this unlikely to happen. Strangely, there are no good military options. Doing nothing will damage the Saudi coalition bloc. A retaliation might result with US soldiers lives which would dig deeper presence in Middle East. Thus, Asian plans will be severely damaged.
Previous video; https://youtu.be/I_mKb_W7Ek
