As you know, PM Johnson has taken a serious hit from Supreme Court which rules that Prime Minister’s decision to suspend the parliament until October 14 was unlawful. Geopolitic Compass stated that it was unlawful and it is not surprising to see Supreme Court decision.
Of course, the ruling is embarrassing for Johnson. The long-term consequences between Parliament and Prime Minister would be negatively affected. However, the Supreme Court has no effect on Brexit time table. It does not give any penalty to PM. PM Johnson is still at the office and willing to delay the Parliament and House of Common for any cost on Brexit. Now his party does not hold the majority, he might seek for early election.
Meanwhile the new Parliament in EU is also formed. And EU parliament openly stated that Irish stop will not be discussed. Before any kind of meeting between UK and EU, this already narrows the options forward from now on.
The parliament might go for “no confidence vote” for PM Johnson. However it seems the problem between opposition parties still remain intact. They do not have common opinion who might be the temporary PM (the strongest candidate is Corbyn from Labour Party but he receives rejection from other opposition blocks) before the election. Thus, hold the “no confidence vote” unlikely for now.
Opposition parties might wait PM Johnson to conduct the meetings with EU on October 17. Unless a deal is reached and PM Johnson asks for a delay, ten ultimately the bloc will be forced to consider no confidence motion against him. Then Corbyn might have a chance to become a PM even if it means a short-term.
Out of these, there are not realistic opportunities remaining in Brexit. Geopolitic Compass does not believe that PM Johnson should be concerned with his position. Even if EU might reject any proposition from UK, it is not guaranteed that new government with Corbyn leadership might get a delay from EU on Brexit.
The real problem for UK is not Brexit but leadership. Parliament cannot step up with an alternative and PM cannot bring any solution on the table. It seems UK is driving to exit with high speed.
