Iraq’s chronically weak economy deepens its economic dependence on Iran especially electricity & natural gas. Moreover, Iraq imports significant amount of food and other basic goods from Iran.
However, US pressure on Iran effects its relations with Iraq. Although US has pushed Iran to end its relations with Iran, Iraq has no choice but to continue its relations with Iran. Even, Iraq Energy Minister stated in Abu Dhabi on 10th of September that Iraq is obliged to buy electricity from Iran at least 3 to 4 years and there is no reasonable substitute to replace it. Naturally, it benefits to Iran which enjoys the dependent relationship to itself including the ability to use Iraq as proxy stage.
Moreover, Iraq relies on the revenue on oil. Although Iraq stated that it would comply with OPEC production cut plan, Iraq has no option to comply with it since less production means less revenue and less revenue means fragility to fight with terrorist and administer the country. Therefore, this creates a big problem with especially Saudi Arabia.
There are also some drawbacks of mobilization units which are components of Iraq armed forces but under the influence of Iran. Their existence challenges state’s monopoly over the use of force. The last attacks on Saudi Arabia on 14th of September draws the attention to these forces due to geography since they are under the direct influence of Iran. Now Saudi Arabia, even not to mention Israel, does not want them to operate in Iraq since they create threats to their facilities.
And these developments clearly emphasizes the importance of these forces to Iran which will never give up their existence in Iraq. It gives tactical advantage to Iran on US interests in the region. Thus, could cause greater problems to US to handle before it eyes full attention to China and Russia. Iran can even apply pressure on Prime Minister replace via al-Sadr who hold the majority group in Iraqi parliament.
Iraq has many risks which other states and non-state actors involved in. Due to fragile balance in the country, Iraq finds it hard to balance those factors. However, economy deepens its reliance in oil and Iran. In case both fail to meet Iraq requirements, Iraq might start dissolving.
