Turkey and US have reached an agreement that would prevent further degradation of US –Turkish relations and restore cooperation in the anti-Islamic State campaign. Any orderly withdrawal by SDF would also decrease the risk of captured ISIS fighters escaping from prison camps in large numbers. However, it is unclear how US Congress will endorse the deal since it has accepted to apply sanctions legislation. Although it would establish some order on ground and the tensions between two sides are reduced to norms, the problems remain intact.
Turkey’s incursion into northern Syria has many underlying reasons. The one and most important reason is the military victory against ISIS. Since early 2018, ISIS has lost great territory in Syria and the vacuum has been filled with YPG/PKK terrorist which US has continuously supported to fight with the ISIS. For that matter, US has provided 30000 (indeed thirty thousand) of trucks of arms to YPG/PKK. Up until recent weeks, YPG/PKK has enjoyed these supplies with proper training by US military personnel.
Turkey’s concern was known by US since the President Obama started to give support to PKK/YPG. But why Turkey has put pressure this time even implying that Turkey will start military operation at the risk of US-Turkish military clash? It is due to US plans concerning Iran, Russia aand China.
It might be interesting to see how global events might connect with each other. But there is always a relation. It is not secret that NSA including White House considers China as major raising global threat. And for that purpose, US wants to concentrate on China. To do so, US has to contain the risks in Middle East, Afghanistan and other places in order to transfer maximum resource to Asia. To balance the Russia and Iran, US does not need YPG/PKK but a country with reliable military power like Turkey. Withdrawing from northern Syria puts Turkish forces against Russian / Syrian forces across each other. Even the agreement between US and Turkey enables PKK/YPG to withdraw from region within 5 days, they have no other places to go other than Syrian controlled areas which are supported by Russian forces. Since Turkey’s main claim is not to have any border with PKK/YPG under any form, this problem would be transferred to Russia and Syrian sides. Although Russian – Turkish relations have great momentum at the moment, the possible deterrent effects due to allocation of PKK/YPG terrorist under Syrian army might emerge problems in coming period.
If this would arise, it would be a hard choice for Russia. One side is Syria and its foothold in Middle East, other side is deterring the NATO via Turkey which enable Russia to have limited threats in Black Sea. Russia should be (I think they are already) aware that Turkey has purged the US forces at risk of deterring relations between two. Thus, construes it could be done to Russia regardless the consequences.
If Russia chooses to side with Syria and PKK/YPG, this would mean that they would lose Turkey. Russia has to make choice now; either Turkey or Syria in the long run. Russia knows this choice and therefore acts immediately to broker a deal between Syria and Turkey. Thus, its interests would be protected. In the long run, Turkey would not agree any deal with Syrian regime. After all, 25% of the Syrian live in Turkey where as another 25% of Syrians live in other countries. Too many bloods are0 already in the street and there is no hesitation that Turkey wants a southern neighbor which might protect their borders against terrorist.
Considering all these facts, the incursion in the northern Syria suggests that Turkey has gained an important foothold in Syria to get into deeper Syria in future. Despite future brokerage activities especially by Russia, there is no necessity for Turkey to make a deal with Syrian regime. Thus, construes Turkey will ensure the safety of northern Syria and gather its forces to into deeper Syria if PKK/YPG would exist under Syrian Army. And since Syrian regime cannot cope losing such important tool, it is imminent that Turkish incursion into deeper Syria is unavoidable.
