What about possible scenarios? What might be the options? What is left on table?
US and Turkey reached a deal and US soldiers are positioned in Syrian Oil Reserves to protect them from ISIS access. But is that all? No…The revenue also is being also being taken by SDF forces which have the PKK/YPG contain the majority of the fighting force. It shall be remembered that Turkey recognizes YPG as terrorist group where as US with Turkey recognize PKK as terrorist group.
While Turkish incursion into northern Syria comes from the claim that Turkey does not accept to be neighbor with PKK/YPG terrorist groups and the withdrawal of PKK/YPG sets a new border with Turkey and PKK/YPG, how come anyone in the world might come to conclusion that the problem is fixed? It cannot be…
What happens is that Turkey purge the terrorists from the region which Turkey can create a buffer zone to accommodate 1-2 million refugees in that region. But as far as the economic benefit which comes from the oil reserves in northern Syria flows to PKK/YPG and moreover, the terrorists are protected by Syrian State under their wings, it shall be assumed that Turkey will purge the terrorists from the region where they are protected. Since the oil sale would provide the necessary amount to terrorist to buy small arms which will likely to be used to Turkish army, Turkey is compelled to or will be compelled to launch a military operation (likely to consecutive operations) in future.
But there is another threat rising in Iraq which Turkey cannot overlook. The stability in Iraq is getting lost and as far as the state cannot give the basic needs of people in Iraq, the terrorists will find the necessary environment to gather financial benefits as well as recruitment to launch terrorist activities to Turkey. Therefore, the situation today (and likely to be in future) is same as the situation in Syria. The instability of Iraq will raise the terrorist activities to Turkey which will push Turkey to launch a military operation in northern Iraq.
This is an expectation we shall see in a decade or less.
