World still not understanding the importance of Libyan agreement. World still considers the Libyan agreement as a Turkish hostile act in the region to access the offshore energy reserves. It is just visible part of the iceberg. The broader truth is quite different.
Turkish parliament has agreed to send military troops to Libya represents a major shift in Turkish policy. It happened due to two reason. First one is energy. Turkey has purchasing 99% of its energy outsources. Meaning, Turkey has been spending around $50 billion USD to oil&gas producers mainly to Russia. Since Turkey wants to be increase its power and position itself between regional and global power, this cannot take place without accessing to not energy but cheap energy. Thus, would allow the economic development gradually.
Second reason is due to maritime border. 65%-70% of Turkish border consists of seashore. Thus, requires Turkey to ensure its maritime trade freely with others. Turkey has a long-time dispute with Greece and Cyprus on Mediterranean Sea and status of Cyprus island. The Kofi Annan peace plan was a great opportunity for Cyprus to solve the problem. Maybe not an excellent one but it was a great opportunity. It has been rejected by Greek Cypriots (65% of Cypriots rejected the plan). Moreover, Cyprus or Greek Cyprus has been accepted by EU following that rejection. Turkey was greatly disappointed by the acts and the behaviors of global community. This has impacted the Turkish foreign policy deeply.
Firstly, Turkey has believed that (and it has reasonable grounds for it) fairness is not what international community acts upon. Secondly, Turkey should start implementing its own strategy.
In order to implement strategy, Turkey has to be united if wants to be regional power beyond its borders. President Erdogan realized that he could not unite the country due to one simple reason; he chose to divide the country into two in order to restore his power. In order to unite the country, he is aware that his power will dissolve. Therefore, he chose to unite the power into under his hand. He has gathered all the power under the presidency authority and somehow dissolve the power of parliament or transfer the parliament power to president office. This has been achieved to some level but not sustainable in long run and can be quickly dissolved due to economic or civil unrest.
But President Erdogan has achieved one major success; development of defense industry. As of today, Turkey can manufacture very own of its UAV (Unmanned Air Vehicle), submarine (1 is completed, 4 is under construction and 1 will be started soon), aircraft carrier, its own air fighter ( model is chosen design is ongoing, its own electric vehicle, own helicopter (although the design is given by Sikorsky, the development is done according to Turkish aviation need), its own tank (Engine needs to be developed but rest of the part ready), own missiles (various are developed). These are undeniable success but not been accomplished 100%.
Turkish Defense Industry development gave rise to Turkey to increase its influence in the region. Thus, Turkey feels confident to increase its influence starting in Iraq, Syria and lately in Libya. But Libya agreement emphasizes a change in Turkish policy. Turkey had been in Cyprus in order to protect the Turkish population in the island. It was close to Turkey (i.e. 1 hour by flight and couple of hours by navy) but Libya is far away from Turkish shore. Thus, appoints a long stay in Libya.
We have stated earlier that Turkey is compelled to increase its existence in Libya. The agreement between Turkey and Libya truly supported by Libyan Accord National Government. Thus, requires Turkey to protect the UN backed government despite the fact Haftler (the opposition to National Government) who wanted to take the control of Libya by force. Haftler is supported by Russia, Egypt, EU, UAE and Saudi Arabia. But Turkey is compelled to protect the government since its maritime border which is heavily related with security issues truly connected with the government in Tripoli.
Moreover, Turkey’s oil search in Mediterranean Sea has not been resulted with any feasible reserves. However, there is already proven and proven reserves in Libya which would cost less for Turkey to access energy. Therefore, Libya is related with Turkey not only in terms of security but also economically. And that is the very same reason why Turkey is compelled to protect the government over there in Tripoli. Considering the distance and the situation in Libya, Turkey is prepared to stay in Libya for a long time period.
Turkey’s move which we believe that it has been driven by other states wrong policy would push Turkey to take small steps meanwhile would yield to bigger achievement in future. Turkey will be compelled to take more aggressive actions in future. There would be losses and wins during this path way but whoever would emerge as a president or ruling elites in Turkey would not shift the direction of Turkey in the region; independent policy, seek for the national interest and increase influence in the region.
Turkey’s move to Libya emphasizes an important aspect of increasing Turkish influence in the region; Turkey opens its wings the region. The parliament permits government to deploy military troops to Libya on 02/01/2020. Turkey has entered an era which would cost Turkey more if it wants to reverse all actions. Therefore, we would see Turkey more aggressive onwards from now on.
We analyse the geopolitics event around Turkey and globally…
