First of all, there has been no strong opposition before him. Indeed, opposition parties have no strength or confidence to win any elections before him. They mostly try to keep the power that has been shrunk so far. Moreover, opposition party leaders are incomponent to create any trust between their parties and constituents. There are mostly wrong strategies followed due to fruitless strategies followed or internal conflicts cause great disappointment before public. Moreover, the party leaders do not have strong character like him.
Although it is possible to win the elections against him during 2023, lack of confidence by public to opposition parties including the increasing nationalism in Europe and United States likely to contribute a win during 2023 elections.
It is not exaggeration to assert that there is a rising nationalism in Europe as well as United States. The economy in Middle East starts shrinking. Already Chinese I. Quarter GDP shrinks by 6.8%. The expat in Middle East will be forced to leave the country as far as the oil & gas prices remain low. The corona virus will compel foreign countries military servicemen to leave the countries i.e. Iraq and Syria since corona pandemic cannot be controlled over there. There will be a power vacuum in this region. Turkey will likely but is compelled to fill the power vacuum. This also would increase the nationalism in Turkey.
Last week, Turkey has conducted a military drill in Libya with navy and refueling planes fueling F-16s on the shore of Libya. This is a power projection in East Mediterranean region to United States, Russia and Europe Union as well as Arab States. Turkey will do anything to protect its interests.
While doing so, President Erdogan will increase its popularity. This in short or long time will increase his votes.
The economic burden however will also increase. It is expected that Turkey will attract immigration from Syria to Afghanistan. If not couple of millions at least one to two millions of people will flow into Turkey. It is mainly due to the reason that Turkey has stronger health system, economic situation and security compared to Iran, Egypt and other Arab States. While immigration will occur, President Erdogan will use nationalism to offset rising economic burden.
Meanwhile, opposition party leaders will have nothing to combat against his rise since they have no strategy to bring before public i.e. how economy can be improved, a new national security realm, foreign relations or civil-military relations. Thus, opposition parties will work on keeping their gains not to lose.
That is the same pattern we have seen during previous elections and there are no reason that compels us to revise our approach. President Erdogan likely to remain in the office in 2023 unless opposition party leaders will make a great change and decide to act like political parties more than dummies.
