Ankara has been aggressively manages the media narratives as key part of its efforts to sustain its popularity with the voters and suppress opposition criticism. For that purposes, AKP has set up a troll army slandering political opponent on social networks and spread disinformation. While these developments are taking place and most of them are well known facts by the populace, it is surprising to see that opposition parties fail to increase their popularity since they are far away from becoming an option for public. This, has been favoring President Erdogan and his view beyond doubt for years.
There are two genuine problems in Turkey; government limitations on opposition activities and opposition accepted as admissible option by public.
Government has been using every effort to control nearly every aspect of political life. Around two decades, this has been a fact in Turkey. AKP has been dominating it Turkish politics as instrument of President Erdogan’s control. This is what Geopolitic Compass calls “ Management of Democracy” in Turkey. Under this management, opposition is heavily suppressed.
On the hence side, opposition parties are far away from persuasiveness. The major opposition party is CHP which is secular party, has been failing to increase its votes since 2000s. It is between 25% - 30%. Its coalition with other parties have enabled to win Istanbul and Ankara municipalities. Yet, alone CHP is far way to attract the electorates alone.
Istanbul and Ankara votes in 2019 Turkish local elections have showed the shifting pattern of public votes. Istanbul which has been held by AKP for more than 20 years have shifted to CHP, likewise Ankara. Although the public has voted the AKP candidates in respective municipalities, the electorates in Istanbul and Ankara have chosen as CHP candidates as mayor of Ankara and Istanbul. This already conveys major message to parties.
President Erdogan has legitimized his rule through demonstrations of electoral support, won by defining their supporters in contradistinction to other (less worthy) members of society. President Erdogan rose to power by tapping into the grievances of more religious, less educated and less Westernized Turks who felt politically disenfranchised, economically marginalized and culturally slighted.
Despite the fact that the government has been suppressing the political parties, Istanbul election show how democracy is won. And the electorates want to see this. President Erdogan always says “Whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey” and indeed it is true. However this time electorates say “We want some changes, we need changes, no fights but also opposition parties to change its attitude on people”. Things have changed but not many has realized, yet.
Since 2000s’, President Erdogan’s elites have been transforming the secular state to an identity where secretive religious ideas and material interests are hidden. This has evolved the transformation for the purposes of controlling governance and spaces of power. Corruption, nepotism and vulgarized understanding of religion with failing state institutions and widening sociological fault lines enabled AKP to be successful against the secular establishment. AKP might have shown some improvements since 2002 till 2012 in economy. However, it shall be remembered that it was the era when dollar had been pumped into global economy and Turkey has received considerable amount of loan which hikes the growth. Unfortunately, it had been a imaginary growth.
Since 2012, the circulation of dollar is not same as before it. Thus, creates hardships to developing countries since they get the habit of creating growth by borrowing money from the market. After 2012, public has started to realize that growth comes from infrastructure projects that contributes only in short term but in long term. There has been not many manufacturing facilities opened. Moreover, there machineries in the facilities are not renewed for a long time.
Public started seeing it. And as they realize the fact, they start demanding change. This change is about the economy but also public wants their views to be taken into consideration. Therefore, the major of Istanbul and Ankara were won by opposition parties where the municipalities are won by President’s Erdogan party. Public wants change but in peace.
The other message was public is also aware that opposition parties might have good leaders to work but not good team to make things happen. Therefore, they want cooperation between opposition parties and President Erdogan’s AKP. So far, both sides failed to bring public’s wish come true.
Opposition parties are far away from public conception. They seem like listening them but not giving what they want. Therefore opposition parties failed to make considerable gains following election. Despite the fact that Turkish Lira depreciates more than 20% and economy has been falling to bottom line, AK popularity before the public does not fall below 35%. Including the National Movement Party (MHP), they still come over 45% if not 50%. Indeed, it is lower than what they have received from last elections. On the other side, coalition does not increase its popularity. CHP still holds popular votes between 25% - 30%. This emphasizes the lack of mistrust by public.
Turkish democracy has not surrendered into tool of partisan warfare completely. Thanks for public, it has not been surrendered completely. However, it is also hard to deny that Turkish democracy is not as it used to be. Unless, opposition parties changes their policies greatly, there is no chance to be perceived as admissible option against President Erdogan.
