The poll was conducted by Russian Levada Center and usually rejected Kremlin. But their results are regarded as objective. Anyway, the latest poll suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating dropped to 59% in April which is the lowest since 1999.
The Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Seventeen years later, Russia went to war with Georgia. The war did not help Russia to revert the cause but helped perception of Russian power. Similarly, the Russian intrusion into Syria did not help Russia to enhance its power but generated perception of greater Russian power. Likewise, in Libya Russia has been helping Hafter’s forces against the Libyan ACCORD government but it only helping generating perception of Russian power. Those indicate that Russian actions are more propaganda than military achievement.
Russia is economically weaker than China. Moreover, the military power of Russian army is eroding. Both are becoming a toxic effect for future of Russia. Unlike China, Russian manipulation of the perception of its power is not skillful. But that is the best tool to combine perception of power and military deployment are not enough to create pretense power that leads strong economy and strong army.
As Geopolitical Compass, we have been projecting that Russia is losing muscle. And Covid-19 is not cause but expediting loss of Russian power. Regardless where you have been living, it would take years to recover from Covid-19. While US has flooded the country with stimulus money, Russia has failed to do much since the oil prices dropped between 20$-30$ per barrel.
Poland is moving rapidly with Baltic Pipe Project which connects Norwegian shelf to Denmark and then to Poland. This project will be backed by EU. Construction is set to begin in October 2022. Moreover, Poland is interested with Ukrainian land privatization programme which would give Polish farmers considerable advantages in EU market. Ukraine took the first and most important step towards creating a land market by lifting its eternal’ moratorium on the sale of agricultural land. While the investment will strengthen the Ukraine financial position, it will also enable Polish influence increasing in Ukraine. Thus, would let both countries to make coalition against Russian threats.
Moreover, Turkey has started to increase its land gain through the Sarraj forces against Russian backed Hifter forces. The Libyan National Army-controlled Watiya base just southwest of the capital, Tripoli. This would give Turkish drones 200 km range of controlled area but not more. Therefore, Turkey’s strategy is not much dependent on gaining the land but Turkey wants to force Hifter to have a peace agreement which would involve Muslim Brotherhood. Despite the fact that Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia would not likely to accept such arrangement, Covid-19 impacts all economies of the countries including Russia which has been supporting Hifter forces by providing military training and via special Contractor; Wagner. Despite the fact that Russia still supports Hifter forces, economic limitations likely to force Russia to lessen the support given to Hifter by time.
With economic woes increasing, Putin finds it harder to control Russia. Due to pandemic, his popularity has fallen to lowest since he takes the office. This would add insurmountable challenges to retain power amid the ongoing tasks. Therefore, Kremlin would opt to manage the media aggressively in order to sustain its popularity with voters while suppressing any counter narratives.
Geopolitic Compass projects that Kremlin would put enormous effort on media to manage the popularity while prolonging its survival. However, this would come with cost, Kremlin should damp down its support in Syria and Libya since the low oil prices with embargo on Russian state companies weaken Russian economy. Despite the fact the perception warfare is good for buying time, it is not enough to stronghold national interest for a long time.
We are analyzing the geopolitics effects of global development while analyzing the effects on global arena and Turkey.
