Arabs are not once again united before controversial plan to annex Palestinian lands in Israeli-occupied West bank. Although Arab leaders threaten to reconsider their peace treaty with Israel, it is unlikely that they are serious unless public show great resistance.
Arab diplomats and Arab community are absolutely thinking differently between each other. Arab community is against the annexation that would possible to start by 1st of July where are Arab diplomats are only threatening while assessing public sentiment. Shortly Arab elites lean to show weak resistance if the public fails to show unity. For that they trust the covid-19 effects. The pandemic would push the community step back. However, it unlikely.
While, Middle East peace is going through a unprecented path, let's see how global actors might act. Thus, we might evaluate how this might end up in short and long term.
Europe including UK will likely to oppose to annexation but they will not implement a major or punitive sanctions campaign. In order to allocate a significant sanction, EU needs endorsement of all countries. Geopolitic Compass foresees that some countries like Hungary, The Czech Republic, Slovakia, Greece, Cyprus and Austria will defend Israel's interests as they have done in past. Therefore, we do not consider a significant bloc from EU.
When it comes to US, things are surprisingly changing. Biden, the Democratic party President candidate for US election during 03/11/2020, is against the Israel annexation. Thus, it creates uncertainty for Israel how to proceed with its plan. it is almost certain that if Israel proceeds with annexation plan and Biden wins the coming election, Israel will meet with penalty from new US administration. And if that happens, this would push Israel to look for new allies like Turkey did in the past. And those are China, Russia and India due to their economic and military significance as well as they have less invested in Palestinian statehood.
This would alert Washington since it would be seen as potential national security threat by Pentagon. Thus, there would be enormous pressure on Israel to cut ties with China especially. We will see an era of damaged relation between Israel and US.
Middle East countries signaled diplomatic opposition to annexation but they eye on public sentiment. Middle East countries in leadership of UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt need the support of Trump administration. At this moment, US will support the annexation while the controlled media in Middle East countries will frame the developments in a way that it will not engender major blowback.
The annexation will take place but as planned. Netanyahu planned the 30% of West Bank to be annexed. But it might be 5% to 10% by end of this year due to political uncertainty as well as pandemic effect.
It is clear that Arab States will show weak objections unless there is a strong unity among public. However, a possible administration shift in US might affect the Israel - US relations negatively. And such possibility would push Israel to seek new allies to have support for its annexation plans in future which might create mistrust in US in many ways if there is a shift in administration.
