Competition with China and Russia compels US to withdraw major forces from Iraq. Moreover, the situation in Iraq has changed dramatically. The Iraq parliament passed a nonbinding resolution in January 2020, following killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, demanding Iraq expelling all foreign troops. President-elect has pressure from Democratic Party to deprioritize Iraq as foreign policy. It is more or less clear that Iraq is not a major foreign policy objective for President-elect and the withdrawal of US forces but not all, will take speed during 2021. But this would open doors to regional powers including Russia and China to increase its influence in Iraq. So what does it mean for Iraq?
Although US will not completely withdraw from Iraq, the withdrawal of any extent will weaken the US influence in Iraq. It will make it harder for US to achieve any political goals in future which would yield to stability. It is obvious that China and Russia will take advantage of US free environment in Iraq. Their objective will be economic centric.
However, the case would be different for Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran. In order to fill the vacuum, Iran will use the proxies and its influence to set stage for the country to come back as a pivotal force for potential resurgence in US – Iran tensions. While doing so, they will make it sure that Iraq will not be surrounded to a leader like Saddam who was hostile to Iran. Thus, Iraq will be dependent to Iran in terms of economy and the trade route to Mediterranean Sea will be kept open.
Turkey and Saudi Arabia do not enjoy the same advantages that Iran has. However, they have different advantages. Iraq has preexisting religious and political ties with Iran but not with Saudi Arabia. However, Saudi Arabia starts establishing with Israel which might be beneficial to Iraq national security concerns. Iraq needs to modernize the military and increase its military power. While US withdraws from Middle East, Saudi Arabia consider introducing Israel relations to strengthen the military capability. However, the religious and political environment in Iraq is still sentimental on this issue due to Iran influence. Therefore, such direct relations, at this moment, is hard to establish. Compared to Iran, Saudi Arabia might consider to invest directly in Iraq but due to its economic restraints, this might be hard to create influence in the political environment. Therefore, Saudi Arabia will have very limited power of influence in Iraq.
Turkey, on the other hand, might increase investment in Iraq. Its construction industry will be cost efficient to reconstruct Iraq. Moreover, Turkey has border to EU and long coast to Mediterranean Sea. A oil pipeline to EU via Turkey might serve two major incentives to Iraq and US. First, it will curb the Russian energy dominance in EU while increasing financial resources for Iraq. Iraq needs electricity and for that the safety of water resources are vital to its national security. For that purposes, it has to make sure that the water scarcity shall not exist in Iraq. In order to ensure it, Iraq is aware that Turkey shall be satisfied. In order to have win-win relations, Iraq might consider to invest on Turkish military industry equipment. Turkey has been successful on manufacturing its own UAV and ground military equipment. US withdrawal will create potential dangers for Iraq and Iraqi army needs military equipment to counteract any threat. This need likely to make these countries closer. Moreover, such close relations will be enjoyed by US since it will control the Iranian influence in Iraq.
US is aware that withdrawal from Iraq requires to cooperate with a foreign country in order to main its political objectives in Iraq. Compared to Saudi Arabia, Turkey has more potential to replace US influence in Iraq even if Iran will increase its presence. Moreover, Turkey has the deterrence potential against Iran. It might not be surprising to see that the necessities might knit up coalition between Iraq and Turkey starting 2021.
