Israel was established in 1948 and then it started to hold military supremacy (US assistance shall not be neglected) over Arab nations while building institutions which help to create western type economy. Israel founding father introduced democratic and fragmented political system. It has enabled Israel to grow its economy, strengthen its military capacity. Thanks to Arab nations, the internal conflicts within Arab nations helped Israel greatly.
Till beginning of 2000’s, Arab nations have tensions and even wars with Israel. However, in all situation Israel have succeeded defending its territory. The Arab Spring damaged the regional order. It has given an opportunity when US started to pressurize Arab nations to halt Iran while US starts withdraw from the region. The Arab nations need a country to replace US technological role in order to halt Iran encroachment and to prevent Russia and China from filling the void left behind. Israel partnership is perfect for them.
In order to justify its policy change, Arab leader argue that Israel is a reality in the region and it has power military and military technology with US unwavering support to its security. However, Arab leaders leave the full responsibility to Palestinian people to decide what they can get from the table although it is getting limited each hour. It becomes noticeable that they have not only aligned due to Iran threat but also to protect their regimes and ensure survival.
The Middle East Security Alliance or something like Arab version of NATO is not going to develop since most Arab states do not look into the regional matters eye to eye. That is also another reason why Israel influence rises in the region since it becomes reliable partner to individual Arab states. Thus, the individual relation between Arab state and Israel creates technology reliance and security cooperation to Israel i.e. UAE – Israel or Sudan – Israel. Thus, will keep the peace pace lasting for some time if not for a long time. Therefore, Arab leaders will bow before Israel in order to ensure their survival as well as their protection against Iran. The price will be Palestinian and internal conflict time to time.
What Turkey intends to do against these developments? In order to encounter Israel influence in the region, Turkey seems to change its diplomacy. As you might remember, Turkey has cut all its diplomatic ties with Israel (and Israel too) following the Gaza flotilla incident in 2010. Prime Minister Netanyahu apologized in 2013 but still the embassies are closed until today. There is no diplomatic activities between two states although they have been working behind the closed doors.
Turkey has been holding tensions with most of the Arab states due to Muslim Brotherhood issue, increasing influence in Iraq and Syria, assistance to Qatar, increasing presence in Libya and Horn of Africa and close relations with North Africa. These activities increase tensions in leading Arab states i.e. Saudi Arabia and its satellite neighbor UAE and Egypt. Since the tensions are rising, it keeps Turkey to use diplomacy as a tool to solve its problems. Or putting differently, if you do not talk or engage a relation with another party, you cannot understand the problem the origin of problem or becomes an effective partner in the table. And so far, Turkey is a lonely in the region unless you count Qatar.
Qatar seems to establish a kind of relation with Arab nations. Washington visit to Middle east by end of December reveals that Saudi Arabia and UAE wants to discuss their differences with Qatar. Now, we are reading that Azerbaijan President, Ilham Aliyev, becomes a mediator between Turkey and Israel in order to commence the relations. Although that would be a big defeat before the eyes of many people, Turkey; if correct, is doing the right thing. If the rumor are correct, the diplomatic ties will be established following the Israel election in March 2021.
Turkey is doing the right thing. If you want to stop an alliance that would be a major barrier before yourself, you have to be present in the table. Turkey cannot stop Israel to sell arms to Arab nations (i.e. Saudi Arabia is very much interest with Iron Dom missile protection system) but Turkey can be present in the table which would make these arms sales less threat to national interests. That would give an opportunity to Turkey to raise its concerns to Israel and other Arab nations due to such arm sales. It may not decrease the volume considerably but it will be a warning to Arab nations and Israel.
Why Turkey is not looking for alliances? The answer is simple; Turkey wants to access the engine technology that would enable Turkey to complete the fighter jet programme and tank programme. Turkey has started to develop its military industry and can do most of the things it requires for now. Turkey is aware that Israel would not share such technological intel with Turkey unless US permits. Moreover, security is a mutual benefit that Turkey and Israel would enjoy. Therefore, this would create a cooperation but mutual benefit on some matters, not a reason for lasting peace or such kind. In this area, Israel would benefit more than Turkey since most terrorist groups would target Israel assets. This cannot be opted as a reason for establishing diplomatic ties.
Economic activities between two are not huge. Both countries import and export activities do hold considerable less amount in respective economies. Therefore, import and export activities cannot be the reason.
Turkey is already competing with Russia in Middle East. While Turkey has enormous problems with Russia due to downing fighter jet or Russian involvement in Libya or Syria, Turkey does not consider to establish relations with Israel for any reason. Now, Russian economy is becoming bad and Russia puts all efforts to protect Crimea, that would keep Russians interest less concentrated in Middle East. That cannot be the reason.
Turkey has different targets than Israel and looking for alliance against Iran or Russia is not one of them. However such alliance would enable cash to flow to Turkish economy which the country needs at most. President Erdogan knows that and we strongly believe that it would be the major pushing reason why Turkey would consider to establish ties with Israel but not any kind of alliance.
The next election in Turkey will be hold in September 2023. It is almost three years left. If both states will come to table in May 2021 and reach a kind of diplomatic understanding, the cash flow to Turkey might start by end of summer 2021 at earlies. It would requires 1 to 2 years to give the fruits. President Erdogan plans that the economy recovery will be visible by end of 2022. Thus, he would campaign hard against the opposition parties which economy will not be a fragile topic in their agenda.
Turkey will not stop defending the Palestinian rights or the status of Jerusalem. Turkey will be holding these issues as leverage against Israel like any other Arab nations will do. Moreover, it gives leverage to Turkey to increase or at least maintain sort of influence in the conflict and also Middle East.
Since the necessities arise due to short term gains, it will not be naïve to suggest the tensions between Turkey and Israel will always remain at the table.
