Turkey has been working to maintain as well as to increase its influence in the region. Turkey cannot oppose directly with Bulgaria and Serbia since it will not be ideal to push countries to create a bloc with Greece. If that would happen, the main connection to Bosna i Hercegovina would be disturbed. Therefore, we have been witnessing Turkey to use its Turkish population influence in Bulgaria and develop economic relations with Serbia continuously. Thus, the connection to Macedonia, Bosna and Albania would be flowless.
Although Turkey is very active under NATO umbrella in Middle East, this active position is missing in Balkans. If Turkey wants to be more active and assert influence in the region, Turkey shall take more responsibility in Balkans. Thus, would give leverage against EU and its members in all corners. Moreover, it would be beneficiary to Balkan states.
Bosna and Hercegovina hold pivotal status. If the political stability would be deterred, it might bring the political and regional collapse in Balkans. Turkey, for its necessities, has to protect the security and peace in the region. It is vital for Turkey’s logistics activities as well as security reasons.
Starting by 2021, Geopolitic Compass projects Turkey to increase its influence by not only establishing links with the communities and business elites in the region but also by setting security bases in these countries and primarily in Bosna i Hercegovina to ensure regional stability. That would give leverage against EU as well as increase its influence in the region. Ultimately, it might convert to trade activities and prosperity in the region.