Over the years, the importance of Jordan faded. Rich oil revenues encouraged Gulf states to pursue development projects that exceeded Jordan’s technological know-how and resources which were highly regarded as major sources before 2000s. Moreover, the Iranian threat push the Arab nations to seek for Western allies which are significantly greater than Jordan’s capability.
These moves also make Jordan less important to Israel. Jordan has no role in normalization between Gulf States and Israel. Following the declaration of Principles with PLO in 1993 and Oslo Agreement, Israel has the tool to negotiate and communicate directly with Palestinians.
These developments cause great concern to King Abdullah. Jordan believes that Israel wants to transfer the Palestinians to Jordan. Jordan is reticent of some hawkish Israelis who have tried to argue that “Jordan is Palestine.” Muashar (Jordan Foreign Minister) has been warning Israelis that this could be the end of two and a half decades of peace with Jordan. For example, Jordan conducted a military exercises that simulated repelling an Israeli offensive across the Jordan River. It was a message of anger toward Israel.
Meanwhile, fading international importance has corroded the democracy in Jordan. The branch of Muslim Brotherhood so called Islamic Action Front which have 10 seats (out of 130) in the Jordanian parliament is been suppressed since it has the capability to affect the Palestinians in the country and win more seats which might deter the stability in Jordan. Moreover, the recent teachers association protests against the government decision to freeze the salary demonstrate weakening democracy in Jordanian political life. Moreover, the unemployment rate is 24% and 40% of the population work emphasize dull shape of the economy.
For many years, Jordan played a key role and once had positive relations with Israel’s leadership. However, the geopolitics threat start pushing Jordan into corner although most Arab nations and Israel ignore the its concerns. Jordan has to contend with continuing friction in southern Syria and ISIS threats in Iraq. Moreover, more Palestinians into Jordan will change the demographics of the country and weaken the monarchy’s traditional power. Moreover, Bedouins in southern Jordan are more likely to side with the Saudis if they will feel more poverty. As Israel’s annexation casts a shadow over east of the Jordan river and Jordan’s demographic concerns are ignored, Jordan will be pushed to make choice between risk of survival and maintaining balance.
