Ain Issa is a strategic city, militarily and in terms of transport, as it sits on the M4 highway which begins at the Iraqi border, connects to Aleppo and continues to the Syrian coast. Both Russia and Turkey have forces in North Syria and nearby the city. However, Russia’s military presence in Ain Issa is small but largely symbolic. Turkey sets a new military base near to Ain Issa. This emphasizes that Turkey is getting
Given its precarious relationships with the U.S. and Russia, the SDF has sought to improve its standing with Turkey as it continues to play for international support. SDF commander Mazloum Abdi recently admitted publicly that Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)-trained non-Syrian combatants are present in northeast Syria, fighting in the SDF’s ranks, a affirmation to Turkey’s most vocal concern over the Self-Administration. The YPG forms the military backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) alliance which in recent years fought against Islamic State in northeast Syria with the help of U.S. air power. Ankara says the YPG is close to militants fighting an insurgency in southeast Turkey.
However, even though SDF is clearly becomes a branch of YPG/PKK, it does not construe neither Russia nor US understands the concerns of Turkey. And this is the main point why Geopolitic Compass relies that the tension between Turkey vs Russia and Turkey vs US in north Syria will not be solved unless Turkey is guaranteed in terms of security or control the northern Syria from its border to M4 highway. Both Russia and US want YPG/PKK/SDF in the region to control the northern Syria but this would ligetimiza the PKK/YPF self-administration which Turkey sees as major security threat to its future. Therefore, we would see more efforts from Turkey to seize Ain Issa in coming time. If Turkey seizes Ain Issa it’s going to be an indication of future military activities, to clear YPG/PKK from Ain al Arab/Kobane area as well.
It becomes more clear that Turkey has been following a thin margin of error in its foreign policy with Russia and US. Deterioration in relationships is inevitable in future but all can be fixed since all parties have more important benefits to keep in balanced than North Syria. The real question is; does Turkey have a unfailing game plan in the region?
