In order to solve this problem, Russia has limited options to follow. These are;
1.) Drill new wells but the sources are limited
2.) Build water dams on Crimean rivers
3.) Construct desalination plants
4.) Invade the entire zone of the canal that is under Ukraine control
There are facts that have limitations on all options.
Prior to annexation, there were around 2 million people living in Crimea. Most of them left to Ukraine following the annexation. Russia has introduced advanced tax programme and incentives for people to live in Crimea. In 7 years, Russia has offset the people who left to Ukraine and even increased the total number to 4 million. That increases the need for water.
Moreover, the climate change effects the agricultural activities. 2020 was one the driest season for Crimea. The rain fall reduced to lowest and agricultural products were effected gravely.
Crimea is very important to Russia not due to its unique geography but militarily, too. It has the Black Sea navy at Sevastopol and it has been a check point for Turkey. Russia also exposes danger to NATO via the military existence in Crimea.
As sum, Crimea cannot be neglected and problems should be solved urgently.
However Russia has limited resource of finance and natural resources. Even though deterring Russian economy would create the cash to realize all the projects required to supply fresh water resources, Russia is still limited with effects of environment changes. Desalination facilities might create the water supply for agricultural activities but quality of crops will be regraded. Moreover, life in Crimea will be expensive due to water scarcity. Invading the southern part of Ukraine where the water channel is laid seems to be option for Moscow but it would cost even greatly as international economic sanctions to Russia.
Nature is not on the side of Russia. It is known by all parties. In short time, there will be no immediate threat from Russia to Ukraine but time is also not on side of Ukraine. Russia, by time goes, weakens due to deterring economy and lack of democratic institutions. In all options, Russia might solve the water scarcity problem one way to another however will end up losing significantly or continuously later.
