Turkey feels hunger to energy. 25%-30% of the budget flows to energy procurement. Unless, it is decreased to sufficient level, Turkey cannot increase its influence in the region. Moreover, it is unlikely to be a strong regional power without accessing cheap energy resources. Turkey feels that it has not been fairly acted by energy providers i.e. Russia and Arab nations i.e. Turkey is buying the natural gas much more higher than EU countries buying from Russia while the volume is more than average of EU nations.
But for Turkey, Aegean Sea and Mediterranean Sea are vital if not indispensable. Turkey’s maritime border is lengthier than land border. Moreover, Turkey’s 65% of the exports activities are conducted via maritime. Thus, makes the maritime security vital.
For Turkey, the dilemma is very simple. Considering that Turkey agrees with Greek claims. It will be limited with a minor shoreline in Aegean Sea and Mediterranean Sea. Thus, construes Turkey cannot have a strong navy and would depend of Greek navy to protect its trade activities. Moreover, it will leave Turkey open to threat from its maritime borders. Weak navy will weaken the Turkey’s army and air force. Therefore, it is ever be an option for not only Turkey but any country who wants to increase its influence in the region.
From the aspects of Greece, the dilemma is also simple. Basically, Greece does not trust Turkey. A strong Turkey will increase its influence in West Greece on Muslim community who are mostly Turks. Moreover, Turkey would assert influence in Balkans with other Muslim nations especially Macedonia and Albania which also have historical problems with Greece. Therefore, it is vital to contain Turkish influence starting on Aegean and Mediterranean region.
The negotiations which took place on January 25 in Istanbul construe not more than formality for both countries. Greece & Turkey want to decrease the risk of military conflict. And it was necessary to make a show in the arena. But other than that the conflict will not be solved unless both sides or at least one side make some waivers.
This shows nothing is changed and can be changed unless geopolitics changes. So the genuine question is; how long the status quo can be protected in Mediterranean region?
