Navalyn fact should be considered in that regard. Navalyn has a different future vision for Russia than Putin. For Kremlin, it is a national security problem. There will be 2021 elections of the Russian State duma. Therefore, anti-government movements and harsh crackdown are ahead in Russia. However, economic stagnation, demographic crisis and restrictive political environment will also help Kremlin to control the possible protests. Moreover, Kremlin will likely to crackdown the oppositions relatively easily.
But we have to eye on 2024 – the presidential election in Russia. As of today, Kremlin has no real consequences of its actions via economic recovery programs. The demographic is still major problem. Moreover, the Covid-19 effect will be less if not none. Navalyn will likely to have some successful results in July 2021 elections. This would inspire him to work for 2024 presidential elections. We do not know either there will be a transition of power from Putin to his successor or not. But we do know that Russia is preparing a kind of transition of power and Putin politics to be intact in Russia to continue for decades even after Putin leaves the office after some years.
It should be expected increasing tension between West and Russia in coming decade. Therefore, Kremlin will continue to increase deeper relations with Iran, China and Turkey in order to create partnership to balance its positions against West.
However, there is one thing history shows in Russia. Never expect what is predicted but not thought of.
