So why international community helps Turkey?
Blinken, US Secretary of State, also mentioned that Turkey cannot be in line with US biggest strategic competitors, Russia. He has mentioned that US needs to revise the impact of existing sanctions and should determine what more is needed. Thus, he signals that there will more sanctions to come. However, it is noticeable that both sides agree that mutual interests weigh heavier than cutting diplomatic relations.
US has Incirlik Airbase in Turkey. It is a strategic point to control Iraq, Iran and Syria as well as major transportation hub to Afghanistan and East Asia. Moreover, US is aware that cutting diplomatic relations would agonize Turkey. Thus, the region would be more unstable.
The sanctions received bipartisan support from US congress and were announced under Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). It is noticeable since it has been used a NATO member for the first time. Turkey is aware that it is US national policy, not partisan move. Turkey is aware that it is not only about S-400 or Libya but related to Turkish politics to Iraq and Syria, too. Moreover, Turkey is on the other side of table when it comes to exploration of energy resources in Mediterranean region. Turkey also considers US not an ally but partner in selective matters. However, Turkey needs investors’ confidence to run the economy. Turkey is aware that unless Turkey has somehow manageable relations with US, necessary investments will not flow into country and Turkey will be under economic pressure.
If Turkey cannot manage the economy, unrest might start. If starts, no one would know how it might evolve. Since Turkey is a refugee gatekeeper to Europe, it is almost sure that more refugees would flow into Europe which increases the likelihood of terrorist acts. Moreover, the PKK terror group which seeks for separation from Turkey would likely to increase the terror acts not only in Turkey but also in Iran, Iraq and Syria. Thus, would result a grand unrest in the region. While US concentrates to China and deploys the regional military force to Asia, such events will be risk to delay US strategy to contain China.
Biden administration seeks the ways to pressure Turkey. Since the vaccination started in Turkey, it has been projected by IMF that Turkish economy will grow by almost 6% during 2021. If that would be the case then Turkey would successfully handle the economic pressure and revert back to its more confrontation policies. Therefore, Biden administration will choose to act at once or to formulize another strategy to counter Turkey in the region.
However one thing is certain, investors believe that promises have not been kept and future promises will not be kept, too. Trust is not important to Erdogan’s long-term plan since Erdogan intends to transform Turkey into a more independent and more religious-nationalist power. Therefore, the cost of investment will be high and would likely be a burden to Turkey for a long term. And that is what likely West has as game plan.
