It becomes clear that US does not want to push more against Saudi Prince Salman regarding the Khashoggi crime. This would be a weak point for US to defend against if certain measures are taken. However, this is not the case. US clear puts its all attention on rising China and wants Israel and Sunni Arab nations to form a deeper cooperation in order to maintain American influence in the region without committing any more resources. According to “The Times of Israel”, Israel Defense Minister met with Jordanian s King Abdullah concerning such alliance. Israel is currently in talks with Bahrain, UAE and Saudi Arabia to establish a four-nation defense alliance.
However, there are questions to ask and answers to seek while why this alliance is required. NATO was formed to counter Soviet influence in Europe. What is this alliance for?
As we all are aware, this alliance is primarily required to counter increasing Iranian influence Middle East. The common theme behind the alliance is a desire to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon and to counter its influence in Middle East. But what if US-Iran reaches a nuclear deal, what would be the main theme behind this story.
That emphasizes two different answers and two different future for Middle East;
1.) If a deal is reached, the alliance will be used to encourage the opportunities for military trade and common trade activities between Israel and Sunni Arab nations. It would encourage all Sunni Arab nations to purchase Israel origin defense equipment (can be read as US made, too). Naturally, such cooperation would give headaches to Iran and Turkey at first place. Now, we have been witnessing Sunni Arab states like Saudi and UAE with Israel countering increasing Turkish influence in eastern Mediterranean region whereas such alliance will be a major threat on Iranian trade route. Thus, would increase the Iranian concerns by time. Thus, arms race would be a fact in Middle East then.
Moreover, such deal would cause Palestinians to lose its only remaining power source; its capacity to obstruct normalization with Israel. This, means no deal is required with Palestinians and Israel will transform from being a middle power into regional power in Middle East. Moreover, Egypt will lose relative power capabilities against the Gulf monarchies since Sunni Arab nations would have direct ties with Israel. However, Egypt needs the Gulf investment and Israel defense equipment to keep the control of the country as well as balancing factor against Turkey in Mediterranean region.
Shortly, any peace deal would be tied with weak links once denying Iran and Turkish concerns or interests. Moreover, such alliance would push Turkey to cooperate with Iran and even including Russia and China. Thus, would automatically involve Russian and Chinese presence in Middle East which would be against the American interest
2.) If there is no deal, then alliance would certainly works against Iran threat primarily. However, such alliance will still cause Palestinian to lose power against any possible Israel deal based on two states, will cause Egypt to lose its power and will create a threat to Turkish interest in Mediterranean region.
Naturally, it will push Turkey and Iran to cooperate on mutual basis and will invite Russia and China to Middle East automatically through this cooperation.
As the merits of alliance is analyzed, it is more become feasible that such alliance primary objective will be to protect American interest in Middle East. Moreover, it would make Sunni Arab nations tied to Israel survival which would ultimately transform Israel from middle power to regional power. This would automatically increase the competition of religious leadership among the Muslim nations including Arabs, Turks and Iranians. Moreover, energy reserves and security of trade routes for Turkey and Iran will always be under threat which would ultimately keep the tension in Mediterranean region as well as in Hormuz Strait. What will be the major threat to American interest will not be only conflict among these nations but will be the growing Russian and Chinese influence in the region. This would automatically push Turkey away from US and NATO as well as pushing Turkey more assertive foreign policy. Iran will also then attempt to catch up with arms race as well as Israel-Gulf alliance.
Therefore, such alliance will not be a solution for trade and security but a reason to keep the tension alive between new rivals.
