F-35 has been a backbone of the Turkish Air Force planning. The F-35 is single seat, single engine, all weather stealth multicore combat aircraft that performs both superiority and strike missions. It is also designed to serve for electronic warfare surveillance and scouting capabilities. It can also use the aircraft carrier to take off and to land. Turkey wants to utilize F-35 also on TCG Anadolu (Anatolia in English) which is LHD (Landing Helicopter Dock) multi-purpose amphibious assault ship since F-35 has the vertical takeoff and landing capability. Considering F-35 capabilities and TCG Anadolu, Turkey intends to increase its influence not only in Mediterranean and Black sea region but also in Suez and Hormuz Straits, too. But geopolitics have dictated different reality to Turkey.
President Erdogan strongly believes that US was behind the coup attempt in July 2016. Whether it is true or not which is a different discussion, Turkey has changed its future plans based on this belief. Turkey has expelled more than 125 678 social employees from state companies as well as more than 20 000 security personnel from the TAF. Around 1 250 had high level ranks in TAF. It is very explicable for any state to show a reaction and start purging those who are responsible. However, President Erdogan also expelled some of the vital ranks who believed that Turkey should stay on secular path as opposed to religious-nationalism path which President Erdogan wants Turkey to follow. Since then, Turkey has been following an aggressive foreign policy with new strategy and goals attached to that.
Turkey has a budget of $200 billion per year. 25% of the budget is spent for energy which has been causing high inflation and high prices for consumers. In order to compensate the budget deficiency, Turkish financial system has to seek for loans to compensate the annual deficiency. Moreover, Turkey cannot spare any funds to support the research & development programs. Therefore, President Erdogan decided to attack on this issue by energy exploration activities in Mediterranean region. The underlying logic dictates Turkey to access the cheap energy. Thus, might help closing the debt while increasing its influence in the region by investing its military industry. Meanwhile China has started to rise as a major global power in Asia, US feels confronting rising China. US decided to deploy major military equipment and resources from Middle East to East Asia. Thus, means a great role to be filled. Turkey decided to act decisively. Turkey started to support Government of National Accord in Libya, set up new bases in Syria and Iraq, supported Azerbaijan in 6 weeks war with Armenia. By signing a maritime deal with Government of National Accord in Libya, Turkey gained a reliable ally and claim a considerable area in Mediterranean Sea. In order to support its claim, Turkey sent its exploration vehicles under navy protection.
Naturally, these are very disturbing developments for US due to conflicting interests. Washington wants to fully concentrate on rising China threat but aggressive Turkish politics starts disturbing Washington plans. F-16s are primary military assets to protect Turkey from any air attack including missiles. During ISIS crisis, Turkey has realized that Turkey needs anti-missile system. For that purpose, Turkey decided to purchase American made “Patriot System”. During Obama administration, Washington declined to supply the system since Turkey wants to access the technology, too. Turkey terminated the tender and started looking for other countries like China and then EU. Both declined to meet the Turkish demands. However, Russia seems to get interested supplying such system. For Russia, it has been logical. Turkey as NATO member is a great asset in southern flank. If Turkey can be attracted to Russian side, NATO will be weaker and Russian influence in Mediterranean & Causcas region can be increased. Therefore, Russia decided to supply S-400 missile system. This has been a total surprise for Washington since it has been seen as bluff till that moment.
Turkey has a new motto “Strong foreign policy, strong army”. Although it sounds nice to ears, there is a very vital third leg for this new motto; strong economy. As of today, US and EU has been blocking the vital military technology transfer to Turkey due to S-400 missile purchase including its aggressive foreign policy in the Mediterranean, Iraq, Libya and Syria. Moreover, the investors are concerned to give loan to Turkey due to its policies and lack of structural laws. Technology development can be somehow attained by time, even it might be longer than anticipated however financial resources likely to have a deeper impact on Turkey. Therefore, Turkey decided to make an adjustment in its strategy but not change. Turkey’s defense authorities have launched a program designed to increase the structural life of country’s existing fleet of F-16 Block 30 jets from 8 000 flight hours to 12 000. The upgrades will cover 1200 to 1500 parts per aircraft. So what does it emphasize?
President Erdogan has realized that accessing the minimum level of technology to make an air jet with local resources will take a decade at least if not more. Moreover, it is costly. F-35 cost of research and development takes around $90 billion in US, Japan plans to spend $48 billion to field F-X Stealth program and Turkey planned around $20 billion for research and development. Turkey likely spent couple of billions for the project so far but financing becomes a major problem ahead. Therefore, Turkey cannot push more aggressive foreign policy prior to making its own military equipment. Moreover, Turkey comes to decision that it cannot terminate the TFX program which is vital in its strategy. Therefore, Turkey seems to extend the period which would enable Turkey to attain the technological know-how in 10 to 20 years.
President Erdogan plans to remain in power in long term even it means conflicting with regional and global powers. On the other hand, Turkey cannot give up its rights in Mediterranean shelf because Turkey needs to get along with its neighbors. Turkey already remembers that lesson when a series of 12 islands were lost to Italy during 1912 and have not been returned to Turkey during Lausanne Peace Agreement in 1923. Therefore, it will be either Erdogan or someone else in office, Turkey will not likely to give up its claims in Mediterranean shelf. However, President Erdogan is aware that the tension needs to be appeased. According to the media in Israel, Turkey and Israel have reached a deal to restore the diplomatic relations after the March 2021 elections in Israel. If that is true, it indicates that Turkey wants to appease the political tension for some time. By doing so, President Erdogan intends to utilize the Israel influence in US Congress to open the cash taps which would enable him to win the presidential elections in 2023. Moreover, it will ensure that his politics will be followed for decades even if he would step down in future.
This strategy also complies with the global economic projections ahead. Covid-19 effect is a black swan fact. Even tough, the humanity came up with vaccines, the ongoing problems with manufacturing process cause the vaccination program to take off slowly. That implies that the effects of pandemic on global economies will gradually slow down on major economies. But it far away from an end. The negative signs are already seen in global economies. Inflation has started to increase. This would imply high cost of loan terms for fragile countries. While the fragile economies have already had huge financial hit due to covid-19, global economies started to take measure living with high inflation for coming 3 to 5 years ahead.
Therefore, Turkey’s F-16 program makes sense in short and mid-term. Turkey needs some years to develop the air jet engine which will perform at high performance such as the air jet engine will perform the performance at 30 000 meters altitude and 5 minutes later at 1000 meter altitude. Turkey, still, is far away from attaining the know-how. Moreover, the necessary funds to support this program is not available in the near future. Turkey has minus $50 billion as net reserves with around $120 billion debt to pay during 2021. While global inflation is rising in coming 5 years, it will be more costly to seek loans from investors. Turkey needs to recover the economy in short-term which will enable President Erdogan to give a considerable chance to win the coming elections. Turkey needs to cool-off period. Therefore, Turkey’s F-16’s life extension program not only signals that realization of a delay in program until 2040’s but also significant changes coming in Turkish foreign policy.
President Trump was hard to talk and difficult to get along with. President Biden is easy to talk and easy to get along. Both presidents’ approach to China are not dramatically different. For Turkey, that is the same. Even with Erdogan or not, Turkey’s foreign policy will not (cannot) take a different path than today. Therefore, President Erdogan only modifies its position to attain the long-term objectives. In order to do that, Turkey will appease the political tension in Mediterranean region while seeking for investors to attract and recover the economy in short-term.
F-16 life extension program is a blink of the change in the tactics but not strategy. Turkey will pursue the TFX program as well as attaining anti-missile system technology while retaining its claims in Mediterranean region through using more foreign policy tools.
