US was aware that cutting Japan from accessing the raw material would weaken them but their response would be weak since there is a huge distance from Japan to America. However, the planners seemed to undermine the aircraft carrier capability. Thus, caused the main miscalculation. US pushed Japan too far, directed to choose war or surrender. However US planners believed that they pushed Japan to surrender or weaken to negotiate for better terms. Today China has two main limitations. Its economy depends on exports and its internal conflict due to unfair division of economic benefits and social unrest. Chinese economy still cannot maintain growth on inner consumption whereas US economy can. Therefore, accessing raw materials via neighbors maritime border is vital. Moreover, due to its unrest in Xinjiang, China is vulnerable. It will not be ideal to intervene in Taiwan since it will force the its neighbors to support US openly. Shortly, China needs to solve the distribution of economic wealth in the country as well as unrest. So like Turkey.
Turkey has still domestic problems with Kurdish separatists inland. Turkey, if desires to increase its footprints in Middle East, South Africa and Balkans, it has to solve the problem at first. And it is not easy to do so. Moreover, Turkey has market that truly depends in foreign investments and export activities. Thus, construes it has to have a good relations with its neighbors. Greece has islands close to Turkey and if Greece pushes, it can create great obstacles for Turkish import-export activities. Moreover, the route to European market goes majorly via Greece and Bulgaria. Thus, dictates Turkey to manage a delicate relations with its neighbors.
Moreover, Turkey needs to access energy with no barrier. Thus, requires maritime security at this moment. Considering the developments in eastern Mediterranean region, Turkey seems without any ally. In addition to being alone, Turkey has very delicate economy which prevents Turkey to make direct moves. If foreign investors stops investing Turkey, it would greatly disrupt the economy in mid and long term.
If the economy is weak, despite how strong your army might be, the country will be exposed to economic barriers. Turkey’s Peace Operation to Cyprus during 1974 is a lesson to remember. Once Turkey stepped in Cyprus to protect the ethnic Turks, US and EU had introduced military and economic sanctions to Turkey. Despite the fact that Turkey has not backed down, it has costs greatly to Turkey.
Therefore, Turkey will push to the limits all time to reach its targets while withdrawing tactically time to time. Any withdrawal shall not construe that Turkey has changed the route but only adjust to the reality like it happens recently. Turkey seemingly avoids pushing the tensions in the Mediterranean region and tries to set diplomatic relations with Israel in hope of receiving foreign investment. Nevertheless, Turkey will pursue the new national policy “Strong Foreign Policy, Strong Military” despite the lack of “Strong Economy”.
