We all remember how two closely work on defeating the uprising the Arab spring and collapsing the Morsi regime in Egypt. They launched war against Yemen’s Houthi’s rebels in 2015 and introduce embargo and blockage to Qatar in 2017. However, the tension in economy would test the relations. Moreover, it would reveal the differences arising from history.
The history also reveals another fact between Saudi and UAE which is distrust and fraught. In 19th century, fighting erupted between Saudi and Trucial Cost Sheikdoms (today known as UAE). In mid 50s, the Buraimi Oasis broke out between Saudi and UAE, Oman which are backed by England. The Saudis were driven out of the area. When UAE founded, Saudi rejected Bahrain and Oatar inclusion into UAE. For Saudi Arabia, it was paramount to be the sole hegemon state on Arabian peninsula. When Saudi recognized UAE as state with the Treat of Jeddah, UAE agreed to give the ownership of Khor al Adaid to Saudi which is still the source of tension between two.
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UAE refused to agree with Saudi’s oil production quotas at an OPEC + meeting. UAE wanted the oil cut ends by April 2022 whereas Saudi Arabia wants it by end of 2022. Saudi Arabia wants to take the reference point as 2018 October level where the daily production is 3.1 million barrel per day whereas UAE wants to take the reference point as April 2021 where Saudi Arabia has 3.8 million barrel per day.
The recent Saudi’s “2030 Vision” also is another reason for souring relations. Saudi Arabia plans to replace Dubai as the business, transport and tourism hub of the Middle East. Privately, Abu Dhabi officials express resentment of Saudi attitudes toward the UAE. Moreover, the normalization of ties with Israel adds latest drop of distrust between two. While UAE works on normalizing the relations with Israel, King Salman got hesitated to proceed with the deal. That left UAE look like villain for abandoning the cause of Palestinian statehood.
All these problems were under the surface before the decline of oil prices. Once the oil price dumbed, the competition to survive began. All GCC members are aware that oil-era is coming to an end. They want to benefit as much as possible from their enormous reserves while they can. But Saudi Arabia has started to transform the country with Saudi Crown Prince Salman view. There are many challenges that Saudi Arabia has to come over. Saudi Arabia has to increase the competency of its manpower while forming high tech cities which would support financial activities. Thus, would make Saudi Arabia the hub of region.
Ultimately, Crown Prince Salman would use every mean to do so which would include targeting the goods and companies in UAE while incentivizing those companies to carry all operation centers to Saudi Arabia.
As a result, the fierce competition would continue to increase while disrupting the relation between UAE and Saudi Arabia in future. There will be more crack in GCC. Thus, would cause the weak Arab coalition even weaker in future. As the unity among grows weaker, it would give incentives to regional powers like Iran and Turkey to increase its influence in the region.
