On 10th of August, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, son of Muslim father and Christian mother, asked for all Ethiopians to join for the fight against Tigray forces. Such deployment of forces to Afar and Amhara regions would end the unilateral cease-fire between TPLF and Ethiopia. Moreover, Eritrea forces might join this fight and would make it a very long armed conflict in Ethiopia.
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TPFL intends to create a buffer zone by expansion. TPFL spokesman announced that the group will not stop this until blockade is lifted. However expansionist move will compel Addis Ababa to respond militarily. The UN humanitarian aids are not let into Tigray or just a small portion of the aid is allowed. Thus caused food supply problem. In order to break this, TPFL focused to control the A2 highway in Afar and Amhara to secure the UN food supply. Moreover, such move will enable TPFL leverage if (and when) negotiations will begin with Addis Ababa.
At least at this moment, both sides do not want to start negotiations. For TPFL, the success on battleground encourage them to go further. Therefore, TPFL will likely to wait where Ethiopia agrees to some of its demands. However, TPFL demands are too strict. They want Ethiopian forces to leave the area as well as demanding international oversight of any cease fire. Internally, Prime Minister Ahmed is not in place to accept such demands.
So what might happen? Further expansion by TPFL would allow Ethiopian forces to retaliate against TPFL. Even it might cause more ethnic strife in the country against Tigrayans. Thus would only escalate the conflict but not help any permanent solution. In short term, Geopolitic Compass expects the tension to arise where as in long-term there will be a cease fire. It is likely that Eretria forces are (if not will) included. And this conflict would only get intensified.
