Afghanistan is a different country now. As Taliban takes the control of the country despite the fact that there are resistance in some parts of the country, it is clear that Taliban wants to change the country fast. Russian Foreign Minister has indicated that there are resistance groups in Afghanistan and there will be more clashes between Taliban and Afghan army (whatever remaining). EU has stated that they do not formally recognize Taliban as Afghan administration, yet.
What we are sure that there will be more clashes in Afghanistan in coming period. Taliban would do everything very fast including purging & cleansing the resistance out of the major cities and looking every possible way to be recognized by international community. It is not clear how international community will manage Afghanistan. Let’s analyze.
Afghanistan seemed to be under the control of Taliban. But various reports emphasize that there are clashes between local tribes and Taliban in different parts of country. If those clashes are supported by Afghan security forces whose allegiances shifted from nation to local tribes, it construes a long civil war within Afghanistan since those security forces likely to keep their weapons with their possession once national security forces dispose.
Pakistan has some relations with Taliban compared to all other foreign actors in the region. But Islamabad also sends mixed signals about recognition. Russia has mentioned that there resistance group occurring in Afghanistan which would cause a length civil war. It construes that Russia tries to implement a policy with work with Taliban without avoiding recognizing or at least recognizing at later stages. China is a vital actor to watch closely. Due to its domestic problems, China wants to be sure that Taliban will not create any problems due to Uyghurs. It is more reasonable concession for Taliban to make since it is more important to be recognized by one of the permanent member of the United Nations. In order to have it, Taliban is aware that it has to establish a full control on the country. It means it has to eliminate the rebels quickly and decisively.
For EU, they basically do not care too much what is happening in Afghanistan but certainly worried about the refuges. Once the country is under Taliban control, the foreign warriors status will be a worrying some to EU. Therefore, EU wants to be sure that there is no refuge threat from Afghanistan to EU capitals. Moreover, EU signals that they will not recognize Afghanistan under Taliban control (at least after elections). It makes no hardship to EU since their economic relations are on minimal levels.
While the common enemy has been defeated, it is unclear how those groups inside the Taliban would likely to act. Now Taliban needs to get along with neighboring countries and seek for international recognition. In order to do that Taliban should act decisively to establish the control over Afghanistan and minimize the rebellion to its legacy in the country. Moreover, Taliban has to control different groups and be careful not to trigger any civil war between Taliban fighters. In order to show the global arena its legacy, it has to conduct an election and prove that Taliban is people’s choice.
What we witness that there are some rebel groups forming in Afghanistan and they are willing to fight against Taliban like Taliban fought against them once. They will be supported by neighboring countries and western countries in order creating bargaining chips in future. That might take a lot of effort and time. Meanwhile it is vital to see how these fighting groups will act in future. Prior to any normalization or international recognition, Taliban has to prove that they are the ultimate power in Afghanistan. But there is a long way to go for now.
