On September 15, US-UK and Australia announced formation of AUKUS bringing together the maritime democracies in mutual multilayered defense partnership. Although it is not stated plainly, the main focus is against China. US will provide nuclear powered submarines to Australia within 18 months. However, the most important is that US is allowing Australia to access technologies previously only shared with UK although the first nuclear submarine is expected to be in place in 2040.
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It becomes obvious that the focus will remain on forming a limited collaboration in order not to distributed by the complexities of the large coalitions. Moreover, US can only provide the nuclear submarines following 2024 indicates that it will be a long run strategy. Forming military alliance is not the ultimate goal. There will be economic pressure from US to regional countries to sldie away from trades with China while the three allies will likely to put economic pressure on China.
Australia will take a proactive security in the Pacific. Naturally, it will trigger the regional countries to pick a side unwillingly in future. Although US emphasizes strongly that the new strategy does not involve s new cold war, it will enable ultimately to heighten the Chinese efforts to force countries to pick a side. China will likely not to see a military alliance only. Beijing will likely to see this as first steps to reduce its influence by strategical expansion. Therefore, Beijing will likely to test the regional countries concerning their interests.
There will be many ups and downs in this strategy. Beijing and AUKUS will likely to use all means to win this game although there will be many countries getting affected in long term. The military tension will rise time to time and it is due to the nature of the strategy. Both parties will likely to avoid any large military collision. However it is a risk which will remain for a long time in the region
What does it mean for Turkey? Well, it is clear that US will use all military resources to counter the rising China. To do so, US already left the Middle East and Afghanistan. Moreover, it will use all economic means to pressure not only China but countries in the region. All these developments will allow Turkey to focus on Middle East. Ultimately, Turkey will have the opportunity to increase its influence in the region. However, Turkey’s weakest point is its economy. Unless economy is recovered, Turkey will not increase its influence greatly.
