There is less chance to have settlement nowadays in Ethiopia. The war with Tigray presents fear which potential holds the risk country collapsing. Thus, might bring the violence to elsewhere in the Horn of Africa. The situation is critical in Ethiopia since Prime Minister Ahmed declared state of emergency on November, 2.
Tigray forces with their allies Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) are in a position to commence an offensive attach to capital Addis Ababa. The rebellion forces took the control of A2 highway connecting the capital of Mekelle with Addis Ababa. The south of part of A2 is an important supply route into Addis Ababa and southern Ethiopia.
The military gains encourage the Tigray forces to consider moving into the depth of country while the Addis Ababa wants to sit on table and resolve the problems. The northern part where Tigray forces seized the control, became like autonomous region within Ethiopia. Moreover, Addis Ababa demands many conditions which would not be agreed by Tigray forces while they are in advanced position.
If Tigray forces launches offensive, it will trigger food scary in the country and ethnic violation in the region. This was the case in the past and can repeat itself in the future easily. Tigray forces have one disadvantage so far. As long as they advance seizing towns and cities, they become departed from food supply chain routes. This would be a major threat for them in case they might start launching a lengthy offense against Addis Ababa. The most logical strategy would be making possible feasibility modification in terms of supply routes to support the front lines with food and ammunition. Therefore, it would be ideal for Tigray forces to wait and make necessary arrangements before a general launch is commenced.
For now, a frozen conflict or stalemate is likely to take place in the future of the country while the scenarios of civil war and Tigray forces seizing the control of the country should not be ruled out.
The conflict might expose different risks and opportunities to neighboring countries. Sudan may be interested to take the control of al-Fashaqa region between two countries, Kenya might try to increase its foothold in southern Somalia while Egypt will do its best to delay the filling of the Grand Renaissance Dam by supporting different groups involved in the conflict. As long as the conflict takes place, it is less likely to fill the dam.
While countries like Russia, UAE, Turkey, US and Saudi Arabia will watch the conflict closely. All countries are concerned that boarder conflict might involve many countries in the region easily and destabilization of the region might disturb their specific interest in the region.
What Turkey can do? In order to stabilize the region, Turkey can two things at the same time. First, Turkey can sell its drone to Addis Ababa where they can use them effectively to stop the offense of Tigray forces. Second, Turkey can also establish relations with Tigray forces and try to mediate a peace between two parties. If it can be achieved, it will give Turkey great ability to increase its foothold in the region.
