So what are the realities? Inflation – Foreign Policy – Election in 2023 and Global Crisis…
Out of 4, Global Crisis is not in the hands of Turkey. Noone predicted that Russia would dare to attack Ukraine for a total invasion. It totally helps the food and energy prices pike globally.
However the inflation in Turkey does not only increase due to that fact. There are many serious effects that shape the inflation problem in Turkey. Russian – Ukraine was is only (and it is correct) a small reason of high inflation. According to the latest statistics, the inflation in Turkey rises to 70% which as 36% in December 2021. Inflation in Turkey arises due to AKP ideological approach to interest rate. President Erdogan believes conservative administration. Conservative means more in line with religious doctrines. Therefore, his administration declines to increase the interest rates so far which helps inflation to raise. His rhetoric attracts the elderly generation but new generation especially the ones will first time use their votes during 2023 are very much hesitated to elect him. The poll survey already show his popularity declining rapidly since 2019.
In order to win more votes, President Erdogan has to show his leadership skills before the elections. Well, Turkey is not in a position to confront any of its rival directly at the moment due to global facts as well as disturbing economy (i.e Russia should be a case for Turkey to remember why corruption and incompetency is a real threat to any country itself in the long-term). It is not ideal to commence confrontations with rivals in the region however it would be his interest to increase the tension in the region to win back some of its decreasing popularity in the country.
Turkey tries to convince UAE by offering selling Bayraktar drone. In order to win Saudi Arabia support, Turkey gave up Khashoggi murder case and returned the case to Saudi jurisdiction (which would basically put under the carpet). Turkey is in Syria, Libya and Caucasus regions. Turkey sells drone to Central Asia Turkic countries such as Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and even signs a memorandum to set a facility to develop drone technology in Kazakhstan. That leaves Greece as potential target to play with during the summer of 2022. The tension is already heating up and it would heat up more.
Lately, Greece Prime Minister was in Washington blaming Turkey for the tension. Greece secured Rafale air fighter, weaponized the islands very near to Turkish mainland while Turkey pushes energy exploration in disputed zones. While I was doing my International Policy MSc degree, I remember how my professors described the tension in the Aegean Sea “At any time, there are over 4000-5000 military vehicles including army, navy and air forces in total from both sides to exchange fires in an area smaller than Grate Lakes in USA. It is a huge risks at any time….”. it will be a controlled tension in the region since it is beneficial to both sides political elites. They would use this opportunity to pose themselves as leadership and maintain their popularity in at home. However, it does not mean a spark might divert the path.
AKP has offered hand to Arab leaders to set up good relations while increasing the Greek-Turkish tension in controlled manner. Nevertheless, AKP is obliged to use the international foreign policy and crisis to main the nationalistic votes while posing himself as the leader of the country. AKP has no domestic tools left at home to use. Economy is declining, elections are coming and there is only way to maintain its popularity; foreign policy.
