North Korea threatens the interest of United States in the region. Officials in the United States increasingly wary of N. Korea’s space programme at Sohae (west coast of the country). As of today, North Korea’s missiles are not operational. ICBM (InterContinental Ballistic Missile) needs a guidance system to take them into orbit and then bring them back into atmosphere without burning up. Moreover, the armour that should protect the nuclear warhead from the heat while re-entering the atmosphere. At this moment, it is unclear that N. Korea has the capability to acquire such technology that enables to operate ICBM. However, that unclarity is the main reason that United States wary of.
But why South Korea and Japan do not act or wary as much as United States. Although South Korea and Japan have more stakes to lose, they both are not able to operate without United States aid. South Korea considers to live with a nuclear armed North Korea as far as North Korea does not act upon militarily. However, it does not construe the same to United States especially when North Korea might have the operational capability to hit United States. Moreover, a nuclear armed North Korea threatens the maritime interests of United States. It should be remembered at this point that each year $5.3 trillion of trade passes via South China Sea which is roughly 30% of the global trade as of 2016.
Moreover, Japan feels uncomfortable with United States policy. As much as Japan cannot act upon North Korea due to its obligations arising from II WW, Japan feels comfortable by not taking any direct actions against. It is because Japan wants to increase its military capability, threats like North Korea gives Japan safety concerns over building up its military capabilities. Moreover, North Korea threat gives Japan the opportunity developing independent strategy than United States.
Japan is an island. That is why Japan knows that in a world where China expands its maritime power, Japan cannot keep watching this. Therefore, it is not a choice but a necessity for Japan to develop its maritime power. Since Japan is in between United States and China, they have to expand its maritime power by reinforcing its commercial and energy interests where they have to establish a strong maritime force simultaneously. It will hard for United States to resist avoiding Japan’s concerns against growing China’s increasing influence in Japan’s interests mainly on energy supply and commercial interest. Recent geopolitical developments have given a boost to this process.
However, things may not be as good as for Russia. Although this may be a good opportunity to distract United States from Black Sea region originated problems, a possible United States intervention to North Korea might distract Russia, too. Then Russia will be forced to focus on its border between N. Korea. However, Russia has the upper hand to disturb United States than United States to focus on Black Sea region problems. It is not anymore, a secret that Russia has been supporting the North Korea’s missile development programme. Moreover, Russia and China have been discouraging United Nations to issue measurement against North Korea. Therefore, United States has started to plan its moves in lack of United Nations consensus. But that is good for Russia since this is what Russia wants precisely. United States concentrated on N. Korea problem means a less focus on EU and Black Sea region.
On the other hand, it is more complex for China. It has border to N. Korea and it has interest that North Korea stays under its influence. Moreover, China cannot accept United States intervention to North Korea. However, China needs North Korea to push United States in order to keep it busy and also to pull off some business easiness concerning maritime power.
Also, United States has big stakes to lose. There is no discussion concerning United States power. However, there are huge concerns if United States can eliminate North Korea nuclear arsenal with an initial strike. Moreover, a military strike with possible failure would raise great concerns regarding the United States global maritime power. Moreover, noone can predict how North Korea would react with a such strike. Considering North Korea develops such ICBM, that would construe the line has been crossed by North Korea and then a military strike would be a matter of time. However, noone can predict the China position although it is more or less clear that China would intervene if North Korea would be in bad shape after possible United States strike.
There are lots of things uncertain and how things can proceed. But there is one thing clear. When ICBM is developed, United States would be left with no choice to respond military or if North Korea would do a missile test aiming Guam which would be unlikely. Moreover, North Korea cannot give up its programme otherwise it would raise great concerns within its authority. Neither party can give up its position but they know they cannot keep their positions forever. That would mean that the negotiations are under process but in any case they are getting ready for a new phase.
