Turkey has accused the US of forming a “terror army”, after Washington announced plans for a 30,000-strong force inside Syria to protect territory held by its mainly Kurdish allies.
The US-led coalition said it was working with its Syrian militia allies, the mainly Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) led by YPG terror group, to set up the new border force. The force would operate along the borders with Turkey and Iraq, as well as within Syria along the Euphrates river, which separates most SDF territory from that held by the government. The announcement was one of the few insights into the Trump administration’s longer-term thinking for Syria.
Since it emphasizes long term strategic move, Turkey has decided to move actively. But looking at the actors, things are not easy as it seems to be. The worst position belongs to Iran. Since there are domestic unrest, Iran cannot speak loudly. But Iran has an advantage, Russia. Moscow stands along with Syrian administration but they are aware that they cannot stop Turkey if an millitary assault takes place. Lately, a drone attack took place in the airfield where Russian airforce operates. The first country was thought to be Turkey which is behind the operation but after some investigations and diplomacy, Russia states that the drone attack has nothing to do with Turkey (putting all eyes on US). For Russia, the most important aspect is to keep its presence in Syria and make Syria complicated as possible so that US cannot look into Ukrain and East Europe matters. Therefore Russia is likely to take a role not to solve problems but to increase the tensions.
When it comes to US, the role becomes imminent. It is impossible if Turkish military assault takes place that US administration would be silent about it. In fact, US is increasing the military aid to YPG which already took all counter attack position around Afrin. But considering the Turkish army exprience and the weight of it, the operation might take place some months but not more than 6 months to take Afrin secure.
But this is the military side of it. US administration would take a position against Turkey. The first move would be on finance. Early this week, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek went to London to meet with top investors from Europe. It is not an incident that he is in London prior such military assault. US would likely to cut the hot cash into Turkey at first. Therefore Turkey is looking forward to assure investors from Europe. However considering US influence in Europe, this may not be easy to happen.
There is an obstacle before US administration; Russia. US administration wants Turkey to ease it standing but not to do it hard way where Russia awaits Turkey with open arm. Therefore; we do not expect US to squeeze Turkey that hard. Othwerwise this would be hard to squeeze Russia when it comes to Ukraine and East Europe conrflicts.
So all parties have cons and pros. It is almost imminent to Turkish military intervention into Afrin. That would likely to purge the YPG terror group to deeper into Syria or to Northern Iraq. The problem purging YPG from Afrin does not solve the problems for Turkey. As long as YPG exists in Syrian-Turkish border, the problems between Russia-Turkey-US will likely to escalate. Therefore, maybe it might be time for Turkey to do the unthinkable and expand the military move along the border.
