The snap election called by President Erdogan by April 2018, was a surprise to most since it was not a secret that he had been claiming that there would be no snap election. Turkish Lira has been losing strength vs US Dollar and economic indicators are getting worsened, most Turks start thinking the underlying reason was economy.
Turkish people are very experienced with snap election decision once economy will not stand before normal election period. Therefore, either people are divided into ruling party or opposition parties; everybody is merged with the idea that economy is bad and will get worsened whoever will take the office.
Snap election decision is taken under bad economic indicator and martial law. Martial law brings many negative conditions especially to reliability of snap election. EU has already brought the concern “Turkey’s snap elections cannot be fair”. Moreover, the military operation in Syria is taking full speed and signals display that there would be more operations on the way. Economy is getting worsened, Turkish Lira is weakening. The trade deficiency between export vs. import increases gradually. It might be seen that all the odds are against President Erdogan. Do opposition parties have great chance to win the election?
In the absence of free media, coupled with weak and fragmented opposition caught really unprepared for the snap election, it is to us that President Erdogan has fair chance to win the snap election.
Muharrem Ince, Republic of People’s Party (CHP – Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi) candidate for the office has openly accused National Television and Radio (TRT) providing limited access to state media during the election campaign where as it gives unlimited time to President Erdogan, Mr. Ince even told that he would go to TRT office with all parliament members of his party and openly protest TRT for its action. TRT, of course, would hide behind the Martial Law stating that emergency rules restrict media freedoms and openness around criticizing the government suffocating the voice of “opposition party” voice. Thus, leaving public not having a chance to access an informed understanding of the opposition party programme.
Another dramatic aspect of the snap election would be about the Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Council (YSK). YSK took a decision during the 2017 April referendum “voting ballots and envelopes not bearing the authenticating stamps of the voting stations, unless proven to have been brought in from the outside, will be considered valid”. Of course, there were numerous accusations about the ballot-box stuffing. The referendum resulted 51% to 49% in favor of Constitution Amendment. However the YSK decision still holds a reliability concern on the referendum result and also brings concerns to coming snap elections.
Hurriyet Newspaper, one of the opposition media against to President Erdogan, has been bought by another media organization which is in favor of President Erdogan. Hurriyet was one of the last resistance against the ruling party and in lack of big media support, opposition parties will have weaker voice to reach to people.
Moreover, opposition parties are defragmented. Meral Aksener, who created the center right party “Iyi Party” at the end of 2017, is a strong character among nationalists and conservatives. The statistics reveal that Iyi party would get 15% of the votes. Mrs. Aksener, since the first day, openly stated that she would opt her candidate and will not merge around another candidate unless she loses in the first round of the snap election (Unless a candidate collects more than 50% in the first round, the two candidates who receive the highest votes in the first round will go for second round). CHP leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, should have gone for candidate automatically since he is the party leader. The CHP party hold around the 25% of the votes. Unsurprisingly, Mr. Kilicdaroglu has proposed Muharem Inci for the office. (Kemal Kilicdaroglu is a Kurd and Shea where the 70% of the population is a Turk and 80% of the population is Sunni. Once he was elected as party leader during May 2010, he could not be able to answer a question about his genetic and religious ethnic. Despite the fact that he replied the question later on stating that he is Kurd and a Shea, his doubt reveals an important fact about the nation. Turkey wants to see a President with a Turkish ethnic and Sunni religious belief. Either Muharrem Ince would be elected or not, it is to our assumption that Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s capacity to lead CHP would be under question following the snap election.) HDP, left wing Kurdish party, leader Mr. Demirtas is in jail more than a year. HDP also declares his candidacy to the office. HDP has slight above 10% of the votes in Turkey.
Considering the three party and SP party (Conservative party with 2% vote capability), it might be considered that a common candidate has the chance to win the election. During the negotiations, it was revealed that those three parties have huge gaps between each other. They are all afraid that their supporters will not vote the common candidate greatly since they have hesitation about each other.
In lack of unified candidate and Martial Laws, ruling party has a great potential to win the snap election. Despite the fact that there is a great possibility that the president might be elected in the second round, President Erdogan has the capability to attract some of SP (conservative party opposing to ruling party), Iyi party (where nationalists were offended) and HDP (the Sunni Kurds who does not want to see any IYI party or CHP party candidate at the office) votes in the second round. According to the statistics, President Erdogan with Mr. Ince would take the highest votes in the first round of the election.
In the second round, these two candidates would be racing. As of today, President Erdogan might receive 46% - 48% of the votes. It might be considered that it would be hard for him to attract more votes since the votes are consolidated against him. However, voters might have different views about it.
Other than CHP voters, there is a great capability for President Erdogan to attract the votes from other parties. Actually, we have been seeing that President Erdogan in his speeches started to address the issues which the supporters from Iyi Party, HDP party and SP party would like to hear such as nationalism and democracy, improving the Kurdish ethnic right and investment in rural and undeveloped areas where Kurdish ethnic people are living mostly.
“Every battle is won or lost before it is ever fought” Sun Tzu’s advice from “The Arts of War”. This refers to the preparation; positioning and planning that make the difference in the success of any battle. A well-planned strategy of deployment, mapped out the smallest details is a much guarantor of success as a hastily formed plan is a guarantor of failure.
President Erdogan caught the opposition party leaders unprepared. Why we do we conclude these? It is because of the outcome of the last week tours between opposition party leaders. The entire major party leaders came together to see if they would receive the other party’s endorsement to his/her candidate but not to talk about a unified candidate or strategy that would at least win majority of seats in the Parliament. President Erdogan has foreseen this picture. No opposition party leader would endorse one to another and there would be no unification among them. Thus, gives President Erdogan to attract votes from each opposition party not greatly but enough to guarantee the majority of the seats in the parliament. Therefore, it is the best time to go for a snap election before a possible economic crisis hits.
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle” – Sun Tzu. President Erdogan is well aware about his strength and other parties’ incapacity. Therefore it would make it possible for President Erdogan to win the election.
