Kurdistan referendum is big problem in the region. It is not only a concern to its neighbourhood like Iran and Turkey but also to global powers such as United States of America, United Kingdom and even to Russian when it comes to fight against ISIS and regional stability. To make everything worse, noone expects the Kurds to cancel or even to postpone the referendum despite some pressure.

So far, we have heart what the parties have been saying before public and international community. However, it is also important what has not been said and what are the limitations parties have. We believe limitations would shape the regions since noone of the parties have strong cards and one to another they have to give each other concession.

There are roughly 20 million to 30 million Kurds living in Mesopotamia that stretches through the parts of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. There are also some in Azerbaijan and Armenia but the numbers are considerable less. They have no state of their own. Kurds want to have their state but the countries inhabit the Kurdish population do not want this to happen.

It is likely that the expected “yes”” vote would be in between 60% to 70%. It is most expected that the Kurdistan Regional Government would use this to exit from Iraq State. Baghdad and Iran have no reason to negotiate any separation with the Kurds. To make everything worse, the Kurds want to take away the disputed territories that are Salahuddin, Diyala and Kirkuk. Out of three, Kirkuk is the most sensitive area since it holds considerable energy resources. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi makes it very clear that if the Kurds escalates the tensions, Iraqi army would intervene militarily. Considering the full support from Tehran, Baghdad will most likely not be alone. ISIS on other hand would seek for an opportunity to exploit the situations on grounds to turn the wind on its behalf.

Despite all facts, there is only on country the Kurds can rely upon; Turkey. It is indeed true that Turkey does not want the Kurds to have its own State. Turkey publicly criticizes the Kurds to stop the referendum and stop escalation the situation. However, what Turkey does not say is military intervention although it gets prepared to worse.

Kurds can look at major global power help such as United Kingdom, United States of America or even Russia. But their help won’t give them what they seek for. It will not be efficient and likely all regional powers will emerge against them. Kurds needs a regional power to emerge them despite the fact that they know they have to give up some of their goals. Since Kurds referendum is a direct threat to Iraqi sovereignty, Iraq in relation to Iran cannot be an ally. In Syria, there is a de-facto situation where as there is no government and still ISIS has a stronghold in major parts of Syria. Thus, leaves Turkey only ideal partner to the Kurds.

Turkey is well aware that the Kurdish society is far from having a unique voice for independence and Kurdish society suffers from deep division amongst their own ideological differences. Although Turkey does not want a Kurdish State, Turkey was not against the Kurdistan Regional Government formation. Turkey is aware that Kurdistan Regional Government is locked with its geographical disadvantages. The KRG region has been surrounded with Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq. It has no connection to any major sea.

Kurdistan Regional Government has opted the only viable route for oil transportation route which runs from Erbil via south Iraq to Persian Gulf. The disadvantage of this route is ultimate control by Shiites. Therefore, KRG decided to construct a pipeline that connects oil undisrupted by Iran controlled Baghdad government. Since Turkey acknowledged Kurdistan Government Region as partner to do business, Barzani considers Turkey potential partner to follow the exit strategy. In return, Turkey has improved and deepened its commercial and military activities in Northern Iraq. In fact, during 2014 and early 2015, both Barzani and Turkey were happy with this new cooperation. KRG had cooperated with Turkey on terrorism which gives Turkey a peaceful time to live with. But for Turkey, the most important aspect of this cooperation was to prevent Iran influencing on Iraq alone and it had succeeded breaking KRG and Iran aparts.

However, KRG has been demanding its own State which Turkey cannot simply say “yes”. KRG has already called all Kurds on demonstrations and alliances to the streets. It would be very bad for KRG if they would postpone or cancel the referendum. On the other hand side, Turkey cannot simply say “yes” does not construe that Turkey is ready to act militarily. Erdogan is likely to see the positive side of it.

Erdogan calls Kurds to postpone the referendum due to Kurdish demand on Kirkuk. Once the voice of the Turks are listened carefully, it would be simple to understand that Turks main opposition arise due to disputed land; mainly Kirkuk. If Barzani would step down or simply back off from disputed territory, Turkey is likely to close its eyes and wait Kurds asking backing Erbil militarily since Iraqi army might intervene. Erdogan would opt this option and seat in Erbil table in order to have more control in shaping the Kurdish region and guaranteeing the Turkish investment and expansion of Turkish influence deeper in Iraq gradually.

However, it is a very risky move for both; the Kurds and the Turks. For Kurds, Turkey will deepen its regional influence in Erbil commercially and militarily. Moreover, all trade channels will be opt via Turkish companies and gates. This mean that Turkey will be the only country that they can open to global trade. For Turkey, this would mean to halt Kurdish independence demand at the moment. Turkey will do upmost to raise the economy and strengthen its military after 2016 July coup attempt. Moreover, this cooperation will give tools to Turkey to control the Syrian Kurds, too.