We have long before today predicted that the protests in Iraq will not stop. In case, the number of protests increased in last 4 months. Moreover, number of people died and wounded by time indicates the protests will not stop soon. So, what does it mean to Iraq? More importantly, how this would affect Iran?
After Saddam, Iran found the environment to increase its influence through Shia population. The protesters demand to end involvement of foreign interests such as Turkey, US, Germany, Arab Gulf States. Up until here, it seems normal. However, protesters openly stated that they want Iran influence to be reduced. Since Iran has high profile in Iraq via sponsorship of militia groups or its stature in regions of country where Shiite community exists, Iran becomes subject to protests.
Moreover, we have to remember that the US sanctions started to show its effect on Iran. Since last month, there have been numerous protests in Iran which basically arise due to poor economy.
It is vital for Iran to keep the status quo intact in Iraq since the US sanctions are effective. It is vital for Iran to have access to Mediterranean region via Iraq and Syria. Therefore, from Iran aspect the militias in Iraq are vital to keep this corridor open despite the fact that Iraq is not happy with their existence since they also have hands on economy. Moreover, Iraq buys lots of goods from Iran. It contributes to economy greatly while US sanction continues.
For that purpose, Iran intends to remove Prime Minister Hadi al-Amiri. Even Muqtada al-Sadr, an important Iraqi Shiite politician supported by Iran, openly demands Prime Minister to be removed. Iraqi government proposed make-up solutions i.e. better election system, assistance to young people with no sufficient resource indicate how Iraqi government struggle with latest challenges. However, this would only postpone the problems while neither Iraqi elites not Iran work on real issues.
The death among protests has been the consequence of Iran militias using violence. Militias violence in long term would definitely complicate the Iran perception in the region by Iraq. If such violence takes longer time, the credibility and popularity of Iran among Iraqis would reduce. Therefore, we anticipate that Iran would use backdoor tactic to implement all anti-protest actions while their hands will be invisible.
We project that in the long run none of these tactics would work efficiently. The corruption is the major source of problem in Iraq. Either Iraqi elites not Iran cannot give up corrupted government since it best suits for their purpose. Iran needs access to Mediterranean region and Iraqi elites need resources in their pocket.
So how this might affect Turkey? There are considerable number of people in the north of Iraq. It is evident by scholars that when the government is controlled, the border and some regions cannot be controlled by security force. Therefore, not only illicit business will increase but also terrorism might erupt. Therefore, we consider that the terrorism via PKK/YPG would increase from northern Iraq to Turkey. Thus, would create a pressure on government to take an action like in norther Syria. And is Iraqi army will be reluctant to take action, Turkish army would take action and create a buffer zone in norther Iraq.
