Turkey has a close relation with GNA (Government of National Accord in Libya). Libya has activated the security and military cooperation deal it had reached with Turkey on November 28. Thus, enables Turkey to provide more military assistance to Libya. However, this might complicate the complex conflict but paves a way for resolution even though it is even more difficult.
The Tripoli offensive began in May 2019 by Hifter who is backed by UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Russia. Once it began, Turkey decided to transfer military equipment such as BMC Kirpi (Light vehicle), Bayraktar UAV in order to balance the supply such as Chinese made UAV and anti-Russian Pantsir air defense supplied by Gulf allies. Turkey was forced to supply these weapons since West has failed to stop such supply from Gulf states. In that regard, Turkey considered to balance the power between two groups while enabling itself to gain a stronghold in Libya. In order to fly the Bayraktar UAV, there are operators and maintenance team in Libya. There are also military advisers to train the soldiers. Turkey position is clear in Libya, West might recognize GNA but it fails to stop Hifter receiving the military supplies from Gulf states. Thus, Turkey would take action despite the fact that it would undermine its Western allies including EU and US.
The interesting fact is that Russia and Turkey sit across the table with different partners. Russia supports Hifter while Turkey supports the GNA. Last week, Russian president Putin conducted so called “questions-answers” session with newspapers. While a question was asked about Turkey, president Putin told “next week there will be a committee from Turkey to discuss the developments in Libya”. It shall be kept in mind that Russia like US does not want to stay in Middle East but to ensure that their interests are secured and they receive the fair share from the oil sale to EU in future via its local companies. If that would ensure a long term peace, this would make the other interested parties like US and EU nervous.
On the other hand, President Erdogan has to resolve the unwillingness of opposition party leader. CHP (the main opposition party in Turkey) openly stated that there is no reason to be in Libya at the moment. President Erdogan requires parliament approval to send Turkish troops to Libya. He can do it without endorsement of opposition party however the risks are high to ruling party if things go wrong in future.
But President Erdogan considers that it should be done due to two reasons;
First; Oil supply. Turkey needs huge energy supplies in future due to increasing households and industrial needs. If Turkey is to jump to a higher league, it needs to solve its cheap energy access. Libya is very close to Turkey with huge reserves.
Second; Maritime Doctrine. Turkey has conducted a navy drill during March 2019 called “Blue Homeland”. It was conducted at Blacksea, Mediterranean Sea and Aegean Sea at the same time. Turkey continues expanding its influence in the region and due to its location and geography, Turkey has to establish secure maritime routes. Therefore, agreement with Libya should be read in line with the maritime doctrine that would be declared in coming 3-5 years.
