In the recent referendum, Turkey’s relatively urban cities including Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir as well as the cities south-east region with large Kurdish population, largely voted against Erdogan’s presidency. Although just 33% of those in the cities voted against, it should be remembered that these cities contribute 64% of Turkey’s GDP and, in effect, sustain the economy. Although the referendum is resulted in favor of his need, it reveals the barriers in front of emerging the powers in Turkey.
Although President Erdogan has been reshaping the country more than any leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the father of modern republic, President Erdogan is aware that he needs to emerge the powers to persuade follow his political needs. Following the constitution referendum, it becomes obvious that Erdogan does not seem quite capable of transforming society to meet with his vision. But why?
We shall look into the quick details how he rises to power?
1970s-1980s Active in Islamist circles, member of Necmettin Erbakan's Welfare Party
1994-1998 Mayor of Istanbul, until military officers made power grab and banned Welfare Party
1999 Jailed for four months after he publicly read a nationalist poem including the lines: "The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our blades and the faithful our soldiers"
Aug 2001 Founds Islamist-rooted AKP with ally Abdullah Gul
2002-2003 AKP wins solid majority in parliamentary election, Erdogan appointed prime minister
June 2013 Unleashes security forces on protesters trying to protect Gezi Park, a green area of Istanbul earmarked for a building project
Dec 2013 Big corruption scandal batters his government - three cabinet ministers' sons are arrested, Erdogan blames Gulenists
Aug 2014 Becomes president after first-ever direct elections for head of state
July 2016 Survives attempted coup by Gulenists within the military
April 2017 Wins referendum on increased presidential powers
It is not a big secret that Turkey economically benefits with one party administration during his administration. All decisions are verified by national parliament which his party controls the majority of the member of parliaments. Since he has been in office, all economic indicators grow positively. According to World Economic Outlook Database of IMF October 2017, Turkey has been increasing its place from 62nd in 2000 to 55 as of 2017 out of 193 countries and it is forecasted to be 53 by end of 2022 in terms of Purchasing Power Parity. This alone does not mean Turkey is a wealthy country but it is a good unbiased indicator emphasizing Erdogan administration has been progressing well comparative to global and regional actors.
However President Erdogan knows that he needs more than good economy to consolidate his power in order to persuade his goals. First of all, President Erdogan needs to unify Turkey under a single Authority. What does it mean?
Turkey has different ethnic groups and regions. One side is close to Europe and other side is close to Caspian and Arabic nations. Turkey consists of different cultures that look the events from their perspective. Their priorities differ from one to each. It is most basic imperative for any nation to achieve, unify Turkey under a Single Authority. Since the establishment of Turkey in 1923, Dardanelle region becomes the center of Turkey’s economy and political life, particularly Istanbul. The city has two main Straits, Bosporus and Dardanelle, opening to Mediterranean and Blacksea. Population was aggregated to region and main security forces were allocated in the region. Thus, creates to access the cheap labor force easily due to populated region and established a secure environment for industrial development. Factories and industrial facilities were constructed within Dardanelle border. At that time, it was a direction which was decided on the facts politics in 1923. It was at first adequate to follow such development strategy but it started giving signals once Turkey started failing to distribute the development strategy within Turkey. This strategy resulted with divided social barriers where state institutions were not a single authority. Moreover, extremism Turkish nationalism has also prevented the country from tackling Kurdish separatism.
In late 1990s, President Erdogan was all aware these facts. In order to become Prime Minister, he opted to tackle against the nationalism but also secularism. That was his strategy to divide the nation and to access the majority of the votes to become the Prime Minister. On the contrary, this strategy had worked. Turkey has been divided into secularism with nationalism vs conservatives in favor of President Erdogan. Most of the people would consider President Erdogan to gather the Turkey into one umbrella. However, he has opted doing the contrary and push the divisions to get deeper. That, he considered, would ensure his administration to last longer. He succeeded into that despite the fact that the divisions within Turkish people and Turks vs Kurds deepened. As of today, President Erdogan has succeeded changing the constitution and has the highest chance among possible candidates to become the first President elected in the history of Turkey. However, this does not construe that he has emerged or unified Turkey in one umbrella. Being elected as a president in a country does not mean that country us unified under a vision for future. Being unified as one nation means that country has the similar set of vision for future in terms of national and international interests. President Erdogan, due to his strategy to hold the power in his hand, has lost his chance to unify the country under one single authority. Turkey has been discussing the national and international interests for more than several decades and Erdogan has found lots of opposition not only who does not share the similar vision but also President Erdogan has created the opposition due to his view on the people who does not share his goals. Therefore, unification under President Erdogan will not likely to happen even if he has the highest chance in Presidential campaign in 2019.
Due to that President Erdogan finds a strong opposition while establishing an independent action in pursuit of national interest and defends the country from External Threats such as ISIS threat in Middle East and Turkey’s military interference in the region. President Erdogan is aware that Turkey has to establish independent strategy other than NATO and its allies such as United States of America and Europe if Turkey needs to secure a safe homeland and its interests in its neighboring regions. It mainly arises where Turkey has different approach to Kurdish separatism than its allies. Turkey took this experience once Unites States invaded Iraq and left afterwards. Turkey had to deal with terror groups which grew stranger once US left without establishing an administration. Now Turkey had this experience in the past, Turkey is against the US cooperating with Syrian and Iraqi Kurds during the fight with ISIS due to the reason that Turkey is aware that US will be leaving the area one day and Turkey has to deal with them who are armed by its allies technological advantages.
Moreover, Russian aggressive actions in Ukraine and Black Sea are main threats to Europe and US interests. Although Turkey is part of NATO, Turkey does not want to come across with Russia due to his energy need. Country’s half of energy is coming from Russia. Although Turkey wants to access the cheap energy in northern Syria and Iraq, US and its allies are strongly oppose Turkey’s intension.
In order to reach this goal, President Erdogan needs to sort out the problems within the country gathering from different social background and ethnics. However it is not easy or it is not within his option. He is well aware that he cannot reverse what he has already achieved in order to be elected. It would require him to spend more energy than what he has already spent for. Moreover, it carries political risks before 2019 presidential election.
Whatever President Erdogan direction would be, Turkey’s direction would not be set differently. Therefore, Erdogan does not find the opposition getting hardened before him. President Erdogan finds the reality of Turkey’s direction and its requirements becoming an opposition before him. Turkey cannot wait fully to achieve the imperatives before moving to next but has to deal with all at the same time. Thus, Country requires a leader to unify and set policy pursuing the interest of all different societies in the country or even in the neighboring region.
Where the Turkey is heading to, the leader should set clear economic goals not increasing the expenditures by civil projects but also by introducing industrial projects where not only young people in country but also neighboring country can also benefit. Syria and Iraq are still under a great civil threat and young people are looking way out. Unless youngsters are all given fair opportunities, they can be deceived easily. So President Erdogan should opt for the development programs where the return might take some time. But like all politicians, President Erdogan does not opt this because of the coming elections.
Moreover, he has to gather the different visions from the different social backgrounds. Such as economy, security is vital for Turkey. Any country, who wants to pursue its interest, should count on its national defense industry which would give the technological advantages when required. Since 1923 (establishment of Turkey), the national defense industry is under the influence of the society. We know them as “seculars”. In order to avoid connected to secularism, President Erdogan opts creating a national defense industry which would be connected to his administration directly. However, what he forgets or chooses neglecting that technological development requires resource not only cash but also human intelligence. In order to avoid this, President Erdogan has chosen to go for outsourcing for the development of strategic projects such as submarine construction, TFX air fighter engine project or tank engine development. However this as he has been opposing early 1990s, does not unfasten Turkey’s hands free but fasten his technological needs from his opposition to foreign suppliers which are under strict obligations of the countries affiliated with their national interests.
In order to unfasten Turkey’s hands, the Turkish leader should find the way to gather the differences one under one umbrella based on economic and social benefits. Once looking at President Erdogan policy which opts to divide the society deeper in order to ensure this administration continuity, it is extremely hard if not impossible for President Erdogan to unify the country. And unless Turkey is unified, Turkey cannot commence pursuing its national interest and create influence in the region which would ensure its safety and economic development.
