By January 8th, Russian President Putin will visit Turkey where he would open the TurkStream natural gas pipeline. Two leaders will also be able to discuss other regional issues such as escalation between Iran-US, Turkey’s likely military deployment to Libya, ceasefire at Syria’s Idlib, possible sanction by EU & US to Turkey.
As Turkey persuades independent policy, it is likely that Western allies would apply sanctions on Turkey. Most would be related to defense industry and economic sanction. We do not believe that Western countries including US would target specific on all Turkey but the companies in defense industry including the companies with direct link to government will be likely targets. Naturally, this would impact Turkey’s fragile economy. The Western countries including US hope that the economic sanctions would pressure the Turkish people who would demand more aligned policy with Western countries. However, AKP is not without a solution. At least old temporary solution still exists.
AKP would try to maneuver on economy in order to prevent any split within the country. Since Turkey’s fragile economy does not have the necessary economic resources to offset the negative effects of any sanctions, it should be expected that the sanctions would worsen the Turkey’s economic situation. Therefore, AKP is left to use patriotism to rally the faithful and minimize the defections and split. AKP will also use nationalist policies to court the far-right vote such as pushing against Cyprus, Libya, Syria and Iraq as well as conducting operations against PKK/YPG in southern Turkey, Syria and Iraq.
However, AKP is getting to point where it starts understanding that it does not help the people not doubting AKP’s economic leadership and President Erdogan’s own presidential style. Basically, these maneuvers do not do much stop the walkouts from the AKP. Moreover, it will be even harder than previous years. Here is why;
During 2020, AKP will find it hard to print money via Central Bank and ensure the loyalists maintaining around him. In previous years, AKP used the main municipalities; Ankara and Istanbul, to stimulate the economy via big contracts. However, Ankara and Istanbul are won by the opposition part during previous election. Thus, construes AKP will find it hard to print money and use huge contracts via municipality to maintain the loyalists not stemming from AKP.
These developments leave AKP to miserable position. There are only few options left for AKP to maintain its current political dominance. In order to ensure AKP government sustainability, AKP might modify the election system which might give AKP more preference in coming election. Like in UK, AKP might prefer “firs-past-the-post” system. However, AKP needs to also resize the electoral districts in order to favor its districts. Moreover, AKP could opt increasing electoral threshold for parties to enter the parliament to past 10 percent.
We are not suggesting that AKP would do all these during 2020 at this very moment. However, AKP is aware that AKP cannot stop walkouts from the party. While Istanbul and Ankara leadership are changed, it would be even difficult for AKP to opt printing money and divert to municipality in order to stipulate the economy. President Erdogan wants to stay at power during the 2023 elections. In order to maintain his direction, AKP is not left with many choices but to use AKP power to change the parliamentary election vote. Even AKP would not do this totally during 2020, AKP is aware that they should start acting on it.
AKP is aware that this strategy if implemented incur huge risks i.e. international sanctions, domestic blowback, strengthening the main opposition parties, straining the nation as whole in pursuit to hold on to the reins of government. Considering what is left and available resources at hand, AKP is left with not many choices. However, AKP will remain a major force defining Turkey’s future for some to time even it might lose power in coming election.
