The winner will assume the presidency of the Turkish republic with broad powers that were approved after a constitutional referendum last year. The elections are likely to take place under a state of emergency that has been in place since a coup attempt in July 2016.
experts and observers say the early elections are meant to get ahead of the effects of economic troubles. An ongoing steep fall in the value of the Turkish lira, coupled with warnings of an overheating economy and a widening current account deficit, threaten the popularity of the AKP, which has often banked on a healthy and growing economy as a key element of its popular strength.
The party is also likely to capitalise on nationalist sentiment, which is on the rise after the Afrin operation.
Early elections may also leave Erdoğan with a limited field of competitors. The main secularist opposition bloc, the Republican People’s party (CHP), has failed to win successive elections for 16 years and struggles to field credible presidential candidates. Meral Akşener, a popular nationalist leader who defected from Bahçeli’s party last year to set up her own, may face procedural hurdles for her party to run in the elections because of a rule that requires political parties to hold a general congress at least six months before the polls. She was billed as a credible opponent to Erdoğan due to her nationalist credentials and the fact that she is a practicing Muslim with secular views on government, and her ability to target both centrist voters and others from the president’s base.
Akşener may still be able to run for the presidency even if her party does not qualify to run for parliament.
No matter who wins them, the elections themselves will usher in a fundamental shift in the Turkish government's structure. Those high stakes will make them domestically contentious and will fuel opposition from parties that function as a sort of loyal opposition within Turkey, including the Republican People's Party, and new opposition groups such as Iyi Parti. If Erdogan and the AKP emerge victorious yet again, Turkey's already strained relations with the European Union will grow more contentious. After all, EU criticism has touched on how Erdogan has used his increasing power, and after the elections, the office he now holds will indeed grow more powerful.
