There is one thing clear about how it will be’ a mess. It does not really truly depend who wins the elections (seems that margin will not be even important) but afterwards are more important. So let’s review the scenarios.
What if AKP + MHP losses – It will not be clear how the government will form or even last if this happens. In case AKP + MHP losses, it is clear that all the coalition party groups will demand a chair in administration. That means a careful and delicate arrangement in administration shall be made. It will be extremely difficult to win the hearts of the public. While Turkish economy is fragile and foreign policy is delicate, focusing on domestic issues will weaken Turkey. But it is almost for sure if this scenario comes true. The coalition parties all have similar sayings or commitment such as investigating the coup, the corruption accusations, Islamic conservatives involvement in army and administration, restoration of democracy and justice system and implementing economic structural programs. While doing so, how the new foreign policy will be shaped is a question. Although coalition parties have disagreements with current administration foreign policy, they do not have mutual foreign policy, too. CHP does not agree with Turkey’s involvement in Libya and Syria while IYI party somehow agrees with Turkey’s involvement. More importantly HDP which is supported by Kurdish origin people completely wants different security and foreign policy in the agenda. However there are some areas where all coalition party meet. These are the investigation of the coup, corruption accusations, restoration of democracy and justice system.
What if AKP + MHP wins – AKP’s increased utilization of the interfering election system and economy will further politicize the country’s economic management and potentially radicalize the opposition. This would increase the risk of foreign companies doing business in Turkey. AKP + MHP wants to change the electoral system in Turkey. And there is a simple fact behind that. AKP + MHP is aware that they are losing in the surveys. The average of the polls show that they can win between 40% - 45% if any election takes place at this moment. Therefore, AKP wants to change the electoral system which would make it more difficult for opposition parties to compete while imposing restrictions. Moreover, AKP+MHP want to change the thresholds to better suit over splinter factions like DEVA and Future party in order to reduce the potential political threat from those fractions.
In both cases, it becomes more obvious that Turkey will be divided politically. There will be no unity among the public whoever wins. Economy will be disturbed greatly in both cases. In any cases, there will be very trembling political environment for next decade or until a new leader emerges. And maybe this is what Turkey should commence seeking for; a new path….
