The first pro-type is planned to be ready by 2024. The tests will start 2028 and will be completed by 2031. Japan intends to deploy the new aircraft around 2035. According to the documents, conceptual design is ongoing. A total $103.2 billion has been earmarked for initial design costs. Mitsubishi Heavy Industry will take the local participation with engagement on propulsion led by IHI corporation (jet motor design will be done IHI Corporation).
South Korea has also decided to develop its national program so called KAI KF-X, partnering with Indonesia. Development of KF-X began in 2015 and is expected to by completed by 2026. It is planned that 40 units will be handed over during 2028 and another 80 in 2032. For the development of the project. South Kore wants to spend $5.4 billion USD for the development only in 2021. The total development program is calculated to cost around $100 billion.
When it comes to Turkey, TF-X is under development. Program cost is projected around $20 billion. The project has been delayed to 2040. F-16 modernization will take place meanwhile the program will be successfully completed. Each plane is considered to cost around $100 million although it is considered to cost $130 million. Lock Martin has been using thousands of suppliers and manufacturers to reduce the cost. And F35’s cost around $100 million. TF-X will likely to cost higher.
However, Japan and South Korea have commitment to show these budgets presented to parliament. They know how much it will cost until couple of fleets will be replaced with old planes. In Turkey, this does not exist. The statements of authorities represent more intension than commitment. Moreover, Turkey’s budget compared to Japan and South Korea is considerably low creating suspicious concerning the feasibility.
It is obvious that development of TF-X will cost over $100 billion in 20 years. Taking Japan and South Korea examples, it will take between $7 to $10 billion to develop the initial engineering and design. So far, Turkey has spent couple of billions dollars which is far away from completing the initial design works. On top all these concerns, Turkey has huge economic problems to commit financing TF-X problems. Public debt is over the estimated level, foreign investors lost confidence in Turkey. Unless Turkey recovers the economy, TF-X program realization will be in jeopardy.
