If you are the opposition party leader for the last 8 years in a country and cannot make a significant change in the mind of the people since the votes do not change dramatically, you cannot be deemed to be hapless. Thus, we have to call the opposition party as headless.
Kemal Kilicdaroglu – Before entering into politics, he was a civil servant as the president of the Social Insurance Institution from 1992 – 1996 and again from 1997 – 1999. He was first elected into parliament 2002 general election and became the CHP parliamentary group leader. In 2009, he was nominated as the CHP Istanbul Mayor candidate but lost to AKP. Following his precedent party leader resignation in 2010 due to sex scandal, he was elected unanimously elected unopposed as the leader of the CHP.
Kilicdaroglu first campaign was for the constitutional referendum in September 2010. It was short time for him to get prepared as a party leader. He opted CHP not to take a place in parliament voting. AKP has the 336 (against 330) parliaments thus the bill passed in the parliament. Once it came to referendum, Kilicdaroglu obviously chose to campaign for “No”. Moreover, he decided to send the bill to Constitutional Court which eventually ruled out his demand. The bill was accepted by 57.9% against 42.1%. Since the process had started before his leadership commenced, the timing could not be worse than anything for him. He had no time for preparation. Noone could have accused him. Thus, party recognized that.
However, the very first election Kilicdaroglu had participated as a leader of party was during 2011 General elections. While CHP leader, Deniz Baykal, resigned, he left his votes with 26%. Kilicdaroglu took a very brave move and announced that he would resign he wou ld fail in the elections. He made his remark during the candidate choice. He had shown 11 politicians who were from originated from different parties which have no chance of getting into parliament. He held primary elections in 29 provinces. In fact, it cannot be called primary election since he has chosen the candidates the places of 1,3,5,7,9 as his choices and the best 4 in the primary elections are provided in the list as 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th and 10th places. So, if like in our list, you have 10 candidates for a province where as party has an average of 25% to 45% of the votes in those provinces, party can guarantee the chosen members primarily from his list. Thus, the loyalty to leadership is ensured. So, it was not a surprise to anyone that Kilicdaroglu did not resign after party won the 25.9% of the votes since there was no opposition left to him. Therefore, there was a weak opposition asking him to resign after the elections. Their voice gone away after a week. That was his mark in 2011 election. He changed the party appearance but not the vision in people’s mind. He created a so-called buffer zone around him where loyal cabinet members are around him. He did not consider how these changes would affect the people’s mind i.e. 11 new members from center right parties not welcomes by party voters, new faces unfamiliar with party voters, ineffective propaganda program are some.
2015 General elections were also another short-sighted campaign for CHP. The campaign resulted with 24.95% of the votes less than 1.03% from previous election. It was not only a bad campaign. The CHP voters to which the percent could not calculated voted for People’s Democratic Party (HDP) to ensure that they surpassed the 10% election threshold.
In April 2017, there was another constitutional referendum. Prime Minister Erdogan (at that time) wanted to increase President authority and to change the system from parliamentary system to presidential system. AKP, at first, flirted with Nationalist party (MHP) in order to surpass the bill from parliament. Prime Minister Erdogan somehow agreed a so-called collation with MHP. Guaranteeing the majority of the votes in parliament, it was easy for AKP to pass it from parliament in order to bring it to referendum. During the referendum campaign, CHP campaigned for “No”. But for the first time in history of Turkish politic campaign, the voters did not follow the leader of a party leader and voted for “No” although MHP leader expressly stated that he would vote for “Yes”. It was a close race and “Yes” vote won the race 51.4% to 48.6%. Once the math was done base on 2015 general elections, interesting picture came before us. Although MHP have helped AKP to catch up with the 2017 referendum success, it is not for sure how much MHP votes contribute to “Yes” but it is believed to be 3%to 5%. That means that AKP votes could be somewhere between 46.4% to 48.4%. It could be seen as a loss to AKP but remembering the 49.5% of the votes in 2015 general elections, this cannot construe that AKP lost some major voters once 2017 election was a referendum not government election, the criteria are different.
This was basically Kilicdaroglu’s administration history in last 8 years. No winning in any election, cannot assure the he has increased the numbers of voters in elections. So why Kilicdaroglu keeps losing?
We can summarize them under 5 basic reasons;
Turkey’s economy is going through the dark times. Lira is weakening and Turkey has been promoting lots of its assets abroad especially in Gulf States. Moreover, Turkey has been diversifying its trade volumes beyond Europe and China. Turkey opens to Africa in terms of trade. For that reason, AKP has established embassies in most African States. He has fixed the relations with Uzbekistan after 20 years later aiming to increase the trade with Turkic States in Central Asia. Less ties with Europe and China, Turkey becomes more flexible to economic shocks.
Erdogan is aware that Turkey has an appetite for energy and gives the recipe as nuclear and green energy including an economic model. Whereas CHP administration supports green energy and opposes the nuclear energy. This creates the dilemma how Turkish economy would recover and grow while other major power is using but Turkey would not. CHP has no concrete economic model including answers to all possible scenarios but AKP has. Interestingly, Turkey has made a new deal with German Siemens with 1 billion USD contract on solar energy panel. These increase the reliability of Erdogan’s administration.
2.) 2.) Erdogan’s opponent to EU accession is something everybody somehow supports
Despite the fact that EU still remains central to Turkish culture, social and economic outlook, Erdogan can tell the people that EU is betraying Turkey when it comes to honour the deal or EU does not act equally as it acts to other candidates. When Erdogan does so, his comments are appealing and credible. He if not always but usually is right due to EU defragmentation concerning Turkey accession. Germany and France are opposing Turkish accession to EU and Erdogan emphasized that it is as much as cultural and religious difference also arise due to the economic threats perceived by those two states. Turkish people want to see alternatives in absence of EU accession and unfortunately none of the opposition party can demonstrate such alternatives.
Kilicdaroglu has not loudly criticised EU for its actions such as extra barriers to Turkey accession. Kilicdaroglu always supports the idea that Turkey should be part of EU but has failed to show a strategy that in lack of EU accession what shall be the direction of Turkey. At least Erdogan loudly states that Turkey will not be in the waiting list forever.
3.) Erdogan is a trusted figure in security of the country
It is not unfair to state that most of the people in Turkey found President Erdogan as trusted figure compared with other opposition leaders. Given the attacks in 2015, Turkey has been looking at US and EU with great suspicious. Erdogan blamed the US for military technology and weapon transfer to Turkey’s terror groups PKK/PYD. Then US arrested a Turkish businessman and then deputy of a state bank (Halkbank) in New York due to breaking the Iran embargo. Erdogan is a clever politician and he used these allegations to empower his appearance in the eyes of Turkish voters.
Downing the jet and restore the relations with Russians in a year also demonstrates his ability to affect the leaders. Once it comes to security of the country, his ability to be a trustee in Turkey’ security is intact.
Following the peace negotiations ended with Kurdish separatism, it was expected CHP to put some distance to HDP who has been supporting Kurdish separatist greatly. Kilicdaroglu did not do this. In fact, Kilicadaroglu somehow gave support to HDP. This was always seen confusing in CHP voters’ mind. Despite the fact that CHP voters want HDP to get clean and represent the Kurdish society in parliament, CHP voters also expect HDP to put a distance between itself and Kurdish separatists. In this conflict, most CHP voters want CHP Leader Kilicdaroglu to say this loudly and repeatedly
4.) Turkey needs a strong leader not democratic
Some people can read this bad. But it is not. Turkey has a consensus on 1982 constitution. It was prepared by military and needs to be replaced if possible completely replaced. But it has never ever been touched by any administration in the past. To do that, ruling party should have the major votes and Turkish voters chose AKP for that. And Erdogan honoured his promise after all those years. If you see this wish as not democratic, you are greatly mistaken. People in Turkey are longing for the leader who can promise and honour it, not finding some ways to escape after elected. Turkish people are looking for strong leader not democratic leaders.
5.) Leadership
Turkey ruled with coalition for many years. Those years were ineffective and economy always was badly managed. With its achievements and failures, AKP has ruled the country for more than 15 years. Economically it was beneficiary to people. And Erdogan since day 1, Erdogan openly claims AKP wants to be a leading party without any coalition. But Kilicdaroglu signalled many times he would also do his best if coalition is opted by Turkish people. These statement or even intension put Kilicdaroglu on a weaker leadership position which Turkish people do not want to see.
Turkey is a bridge between Europe and Middle East. This geography requires a leader who establishes his / her profile strong and trustee. A party like CHP cannot build his strategy on partnership or economic models similar to ruling administration. CHP should not build the strategy on AKP’s failures only and only but also its own vision of Turkey in 2040 and beyond if possible. Unless Kilicdaroglu prefers establishing a strategy based on this approach, AKP in lack of great failure would ascertain coming elections.
