"This does not mean that we will close our eyes to the new unfriendly steps, or the attempts to talk from a position of strength, or the meddling in [our] internal affairs," Lavrov further explained."Such steps are being prepared, and they are being talked about openly, but a response will definitely follow," he warned.
In 2005, Putin said “…collapse of the Soviet Union was a catastrophe for Russia – not the collapse of communism”. He has said since the Soviet Union had the leverage to protect its borders via those countries since they posed a natural border with Western. Since the collapse of Soviet Union, the borders moved to east. Ukraine conflict or the flight incident with Belarus show that Russia is ready to live with any government which lean to Russia or at least neutral. For Russia, any CIS countries which are dominated by Western countries are dangerous.
From US perspective, the annexation of Crimea is an attempt of Russian to return to great power status. Countries in EU have different ideas and cannot make up a single approach i.e. Germany does not want to disrupt its relations with Russia under any circumstances, Poland is very sensitive about Russian actions in Ukraine, Portugal does not even affect EU consensus. It is hard for EU to unite an action against EU.
However, recent Russian support to Belarus about Ryanair aircraft being forced to land in Belarus proves that Russia is coming to Eastern border to counter the European actions. And that is what Lavrov meant by saying “…They are moving eastwards and get deeper….”. Lavrov intention is to intensify the fractions deeper in EU against Russia since it is the best defense mechanism. EU has mutual economic policy to Russia but has not united policy for Russian aggression. Russia wants to make sure that it stays that way.
Although the strategy works, it has one vital weakness, Russian economy. In order to attract Western countries, it has to offer something in return. Russian economy is under stress due to sanctions. That makes it hard for Russia to offer attractive deals to some of the European countries to attract them.
That creates opportunities for Turkey to increase its footholds in Balkan and in Central Asia. However, Turkey also faces similar problems like Russia, deterring economy. Unless Turkey rectifies the economic model, Turkey will likely to fail increasing its influence in the region.
