If you think it is just a rejection and not mean a lot, then you are wrong. It means a change how Kazakhstan sees itself in the world. Let’s dive and analyze the crack in EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union).
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In the beginning of June, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said that EAEU was preparing a joint response to Western sanctions. Surprisingly, Kazakhstan Foreign Ministry said “No”. Nur Sultan is not happy to see EAEU being politicized and happy to remain in economic union. It was without any doubt a setback to Moscow. But more importantly, Nur Sultan implied “I am not your satellite state, respect me”.
Today ¼ of the gross domestic product of the country comes from oil via Russian pipelines. Therefore, Russia is not a choice friendship but necessity for Kazakhstan. Eurasian is integration of then-President Nursultan Nazarbayev. Since Kazakhstan is a landlocked country, it relies on goodwill of others and economic integration with others are necessity but not choice. By creating such alliance, Nur Sultan increased its exports by 25% and the joint ventures in the country have been doubled. It also enables the country to diversify its trade with countries such as Vietnam Iran and China through free trade agreements.
Since 2012, there is drop in commodity prices and economic slowdown does not only hit Kazakhstan but also the world. Moreover, the recent sanctions directed at Russia had negative effects on the union. All these affect have put pressure on Kazakh Tenge (Kazakh currency).
All these negative changes dictate Kazakhstan to even more diversity its trade. Therefore, Kazakhstan cannot afford to alienate itself from non-EAEU neighbors or countries that have resources to pump cash into economy or invest in infrastructure projects. If Kazakhstan allowed its name in that list, there would be risk for Kazakhstan to see its name in Western sanction list next time.
Moscow understand why Kazakhstan has opposed it. Russia is aware that its economy is an in a opposition to integrate all members as it desires therefore making occasional concession is part of the integration process. Kazakhstan location makes it crossroads for trade between Russia, China, Central Asian Republics, Turkey and Caucasus. Its natural resources make it important and attractive destination for West, China and Russia as well as Turkey. However geography also serves facts as in Kazakhstan example. It has to depend on other countries goodwill since it is landlocked. Therefore it has to stay as neutral as possible when it comes to big political conflicts. Kazakhstan has not got leverage to strike the balance against Russia but weakening Russian economy will likely to impact the balance in future.
As we have been pursuing for a long time, it gives a huge window for Turkey to increase its footprint in Central Asia. Turkey has not only trade route advantages but also cultural links with Turkic nations in Central Asia. If Turkey can transform the Turkic Council into economic and security organization then it may not totally eliminate but to reduce dramatically Russian influence in Central Asia. However, Turkey’s biggest obstacle is its economy. As long as Turkey has fragile economy, its foreign policy imperatives would always be unpretentious.
